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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

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46 minutes ago, vortmax said:

Lost power. Thankfully it's 70. 

That’s my #1 complaint with wind. I simply don’t know what to do with myself once the power goes out. I gotta look into a better generator. My current one is a gas powered that requires a ridiculously hard pull on a recoil cord. I’m not even sure I can do it anymore. I think the new converters are better. Electric start and much quieter would be a plus. Maybe even a natural gas one. But they are very expensive and my electric system is set for a portable generator to sit on the driveway. 

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20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

If only this storm was a touch stronger or still deepening and this would have been a very significant event. So close!  Still a great day for a wind lover. 

Crazy the negative impact the cold lake had in Buffalo.  Been down on the water front since 230 and nothing more than breeze 10-15mph tops.  Packed down here everyone out enjoying the sun.

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48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Crazy the negative impact the cold lake had in Buffalo.  Been down on the water front since 230 and nothing more than breeze 10-15mph tops.  Packed down here everyone out enjoying the sun.

Rochester came in with their 7th highest gust in history today. 71mph at 1:20.  

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Got rid of the disgusting hell-furnace south wind and the temp dropped 22 degrees in the past several hours from 72 to 50! It dropped 10 degrees in just the last hour alone.

I was already sweating today (and I'm not fat). lol. I just hate warm weather...my body likes to be cool.

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15 hours ago, winter_rules said:

I really enjoy your posts about big hikes like this.  Something I know I would love, but never had any friends into it, and current situation of wife/kids prevent me from bailing on them for a weekend anyway.  Maybe when my son gets just a little older we can start doing stuff like this.  

What do you eat while you are out on a hike like that?  Clif Bars? Kind? Just water or do you bring Gatorade or something for electrolytes? 

We have a group of 15 or so that go up there to hike with us. We backpack, day trip, 3-5 day camping trips the last few years. My first peak was Mt. Marcy in 2017 and I should be finishing this year, so 5 years to complete. It's over a 6 hour drive each way, so whenever I go up there I try to hit 1-2 high peaks. I've hiked all over the place and those mountains are still my hardest climbs. My west coast hikes were much easier than the ADK hikes. It has to do with the terrain up there. They are just so steep and long, the west coast hikes you start at a higher elevation and the terrain is more smooth. I usually bring the wife and dog with me but we also do many without them.

Preparation is everything up there. Those mountains are unforgiving. Saturdays hike started at -22 degrees, my water tube froze in the first few minutes. I also lost my insulated water bottle about 2 miles from the top and nearly gave up and walked back. So many of these hikes are mental. My body started cramping pretty bad which usually doesn't happen. The cold really got to me. Also the deep snow was difficult, no one was on the trail before us.

I usually do an hour of yoga/stretching the day before the hike and then 10 mins or so stretch right before. I bring about 6 liters of water/body armor for any hike greater then 12 miles. I drink about a liter per 2-3 miles. A mile in ADK isn't a typical mile. A typical ADK mile at my speed is 30-35 minutes and I am a very fast hiker, most people take 40-45 minutes+ per mile. I bring pickle juice or something salty to help with cramps. Chips work as well. I bring 1-2 PBNJ sandwiches and lots of trail mix/nuts.

You have to prepare a lot for the winter hikes as conditions up there can be very dangerous. A guy from East Aurora died up there last year. A healthy 41 year old man.


Sometimes up there in winter you won't run into anyone for the entire 18 miles, if anything happens its on your partner to go back to the start of the hike and get help. There is no cell phone service and it is 5-6 hours back to the entrance. In summer you almost always have people on the trail. I would never hike solo in winter unless I knew more people would be on the trail or a very popular winter hiking peak like I did a few weeks ago. It also helps alot that I follow the weather and know what the conditions are going to be like up there.

There are a little over 13,000 ADK 46ers. A few have done all of them in winter and in summer. I've done 8 in winter and 32 in the other seasons. Should be finishing up later this fail on Allen with our Josh Allen jerseys. Me, my buddy and his dad are going to finish all at the same time.

Want to add I also eat a banana and granola bar the morning of the hike and bring 1 banana and 4-5 clementines on the hike. Most of these hikes range anywhere from 8-18 hours, unless backpacking.

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12 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I just realized this says you did 18 miles. That is nuts. In the snow? Crazy town

It really was crazy. Like I said earlier I literally shed a tear when I got to the top. I've never been that beaten down before. As I lost my water bottle I was melting snow in my mouth and drinking it to combat my cramps. 3 of us started the hike and my 1 friend turned around half way in and went back to the car.

nothing beats this though, it’s all worth it. The 2nd picture is from another 46er



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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, @LakeEffectKing, we got an honorable mention from BGM in their discussion! :P 


A short window of lake effect
snow looks somewhat favorable Monday night, and may produce a
couple inches of snow from around Baldwinsville to Cazenovia.

Yeah....after being outside all day today, it's hard to give it up...happens every time around this time of year. But I wouldn't turn down a biggie, anytime.

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12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yeah....after being outside all day today, it's hard to give it up...happens every time around this time of year. But I wouldn't turn down a biggie, anytime.

Hopefully we can get things to trend our way for next weekend. It looks like a deep push of cold air. It could be one of our best shots for a Noreaster if the cold air moves in fast enough. 

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Obviously this is before the GFS 6z..

On Friday morning there will be a few separate pieces spread out
over portions of the conus that will come together to make for a
potentially potent weekend storm system. A potent upper level trough
and low over the southwestern US and Southern Rockies tracking
mostly due east, a potent trough over the southern Canadian Prairies
tracking southeast, and a weak disturbance over the Gulf of Mexico
with high moisture content. As the two troughs track toward the
Tennessee Valley from Friday morning through Saturday morning, an
area of low pressure will form over the lower Mississippi Valley
ahead of the southern trough on Friday evening, picking up the
moisture from the GOMEX disturbance. With the amplitude of the
southern trough the area of low pressure will track north-northeast
along the western side of the Appalachians. As the two troughs phase
over the Tennessee Valley, the area of low pressure will begin to
rapidly strengthen over the Ohio Valley and WNY, potentially bombing
out. Rapid deepening seems especially possible between the Tennessee
Valley and the St. Lawrence Valley, where some guidance is
suggesting pressure drops of ~30 mb in 18 hours. Currently, guidance
is tracking this system northeast over a few different areas, the
GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over
ENY. Track of the storm will be key in the potential for rain vs.
snow, and how windy it may get for Western and North Central NY. For
now going with a slightly more east solution, resulting in a bit of
a quicker change over from rain to snow, with likely POPs from late
Friday evening through Saturday morning. There are a lot of parts to
this storm scenario, and any changes in location or timing for the
different parts mentioned above will have the potential to cause
significant changes to the forecast.
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