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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-04T084423.038.png

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-04T084440.580.png

I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again.

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2 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again.

I was thinking the exact same thing and wasn't about to be the first to post about it. I avoided checking the models the past 2 days and was dumb and looked this morning. Overnight runs for Monday: Syracuse, below the best snow line with Buffalo to Watertown yet again getting the snow.

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1 hour ago, vortmax said:

The stuff that sublimates.

Yep! It was sublimating by like 9/ 9:30. lol

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

LR Nam wants to hop on the JT express..

namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49 (6).png

You and Buffaloweather disagreed with me...but this is the same crap pattern we've been stuck in for months. So tired of it.

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5 hours ago, winter_rules said:

I can only look at those maps and laugh…the theme of the year continues. Those of us near the I-88 corridor fall JUST on the southern boundary of snow. Granted, the snow line will end up 50 miles north of there, but it’s amusing to see us shown on the fringe yet again.

 

5 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was thinking the exact same thing and wasn't about to be the first to post about it. I avoided checking the models the past 2 days and was dumb and looked this morning. Overnight runs for Monday: Syracuse, below the best snow line with Buffalo to Watertown yet again getting the snow.

These weak sauce waves arent going to produce much of anything anyway other than mood flakes. Aside from fighting the usual underwhelming snow growth and precip rates, now that we're into March, you can add increasingly hostile boundary layer, sun angle, and antecendent warm/wet ground into the factors working against accumulation depending on time of day. 

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5 hours ago, brentrich said:

Like i said last month ago, we will not see any warmth until late April and I was right.  You guys laughed at me. :/ 

We'll pretend the handful of thaw torches the past few weeks didn't happen.

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37 minutes ago, Leelee said:

We'll pretend the handful of thaw torches the past few weeks didn't happen.

I have that clown blocked, but I like how he's just going to ignore temps in the upper 60's on Sunday.  What a weird existence to troll a weather forum with nonsense for years.  

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13 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I have that clown blocked, but I like how he's just going to ignore temps in the upper 60's on Sunday.  What a weird existence to troll a weather forum with nonsense for years.  

I'm sure it's the guy from Tolland and one of his many alt accounts.

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I can't complain about any snow in March, especially if it can last longer than a day. When the average highs hit 40 with March sun angle that can melt inches of snow on a bitter cold day. There's been Marches in the past with no snow at all in Buffalo.

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

NAM says forget about it. GFS was still game at 6z. Things look decidedly dull as compared to a couple days ago. That’s for sure. Hard to get around crap MJO? image.thumb.png.1e24d42346a43a3e7695862c06f00837.png

Mjo isn't running this pattern right now being in the COD.

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2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Cautiously optimistic for this wind event tomorrow. It’s actually the type of event that brings the most potential.  Bring on the sun! 

BUF is talking it up more each update… Bust potential is there though if clouds win the sky and mixing doesn’t occur.  Looking like prime time for BUF area is noon-4pm.

Aggressive 6 hour 500 mb height fall center on track to move through western New York around mid day Sunday, with a ~995 mb surface low tracking north of the area. Low level wind fields remain very impressive with 850 mb winds near 80 knots and 925 mb winds of 50-60 knots. Biggest question remains as to how much mixing will take place within the warm sector ahead of the cold front, as this is normally a less efficient environment to mix stronger winds to the surface. Sunshine, how much and how long will play a crucial role in how much of the wind aloft can get to the surface. Momentum transfer profiles suggesting that we are likely looking 50-55 knots being able to mix to the surface generally from a corridor from Buffalo to Rochester, maybe as far east as Oswego county and potentially as far south as portions of the Finger Lakes and Southern tier. Of course, less sunshine would limit this amount of wind while more sunshine could bring even higher gusts along with a larger coverage area. Will maintain the high wind watch for the entire area and try to pin down a more confined area for the greatest wind threat in later forecasts, but it should be noted that this event could be a significant if greater mixing depths can be achieved.

There are a few cases of sunshine driven warm sector mixing producing warning criteria wind gusts in the past 10-15 years during the months of March and April, the most notable of which is the March 8, 2017 event. This event does not appear as extreme as 2017, but the magnitude of winds aloft and potential for sunshine driven mixing do draw some parallels.

 

 

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4 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Cautiously optimistic for this wind event tomorrow. It’s actually the type of event that brings the most potential.  Bring on the sun! 

You finally get a good one!?! March can really bring the wind. I’ll be hoping on a long shot snow event between now and next Saturday. Very changeable environment so I don’t think anything can be ruled out. 

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