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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

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Sunday night...the cold front noted above should either by just
about overhead by nightfall or quickly moving east through WNY and
CNY.  Dry and cooler air will follow along with diminishing winds.
However, the next system will also be rapidly approaching, with a
renewed chance for precipitation by daybreak Monday.


Slowly gaining forecast confidence with the next system for the
start next week as latest model guidance packages are trending
toward more of a consensus. Current thinking with this system is the
stalled frontal boundary from the previous low, will stall southeast
of the region (somewhere between the Catskill Mountains and the
Eastern Seaboard). As noted in previous scenarios,this set up would
support an all snow scenario however precipitation type still
remains of question at this time. Now, arrival time of the cold air
will become the deciding factor of precipitation type. This being
said, while some discrepancies continue to lie between the different
model guidance packages the overall trend has the cold air starting
to arrive Monday morning across the northern portions of the area.
Cold air will continue to advect southward across the region
throughout the rest of the day Monday and Monday Night. What this
boils down to, is a mishmash of precipitation types, with mainly
snow across the North Country, a mix of snow and rain across most of
the CWA, and plain rain across the Southern Tier through out the
daytime Monday. Then, with the system sliding by to the southeast of
the region and as nightfall with cold air continuing to advect in
all precipitation will switch over to be just snow Monday night.
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Next system comes through on Monday. Sfc-H85 wave rides along the
now stalled out frontal boundary that comes through the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast Sunday night. Heaviest QPF currently projected
Southern Tier to Finger Lakes (greatest chances here for over 0.75
inch). Ptype remains a challenge with waves passing across region
and our area right on edge of rain/snow line. Still seems best
chances for mainly rain will be along NY/PA state line Monday
afternoon while best chances for ptype remaining mainly snow the
whole event will be across North Country. Plenty of wiggle room in
between these areas with isothermal profile aloft. Difference
of only a degree or two at the sfc will make big difference.
Forecast soundings and blended model probabilities point to
mainly a rain versus snow issue instead of much freezing rain or
sleet. In terms of snow amounts, could see several inches of
wet snow where ptype remains snow on northern edge of the
heavier precip shield. Then, even as initial system is exiting
Monday evening with sfc low heading off Mid Atlantic, there are
signs of secondary wave sliding across (varying
extent/intensity in the models) as northern stream shortwave
trough arrives that would bring another period of snow.
Increased pops some late Monday night into Tuesday, but probably
not enough if these trends continue.
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