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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

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7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

For you snow depth weenies this pole is not fully pushed down it kept going and going. Here are my AllTrails stats for that hike 

CFCA3330-54D9-4AD3-85C8-93D2437F5FD9.jpeg

36DD30A1-6055-4D2F-99EC-06B005A81DA2.jpeg

I really enjoy your posts about big hikes like this.  Something I know I would love, but never had any friends into it, and current situation of wife/kids prevent me from bailing on them for a weekend anyway.  Maybe when my son gets just a little older we can start doing stuff like this.  
 

What do you eat while you are out on a hike like that?  Clif Bars? Kind? Just water or do you bring Gatorade or something for electrolytes? 

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7 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

Satellite looks like it may clear out here in a couple hours. 

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7 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

These anomalous spring wind events are interesting.  I assume it’s the juxtaposition between the ice cold lakes and the dark leafless land which creates a huge horizontal temperature delta that must drive large powerful turbulent circulations. Add in some of large snow fields in the higher elevations and dense wooded areas creating additional localized circulations and it should be and interesting day… as long as we get adequate solar heating. 

Clear blue skies and full sunshine here . Could be interesting in a few hours . 

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Winds are ramping up nicely in Buffalo. I’m downtown at a hotel right now about to check out (duffs then home!).  Seems quite likely that we’ll see some damaging gusts this afternoon. Forecast has temps slowly falling during the afternoon which should increase surface instability as the ground will still be baking in the sun. That’s when we should see the action. 

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15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Winds are ramping up nicely in Buffalo. I’m downtown at a hotel right now about to check out (duffs then home!).  Seems quite likely that we’ll see some damaging gusts this afternoon. Forecast has temps slowly falling during the afternoon which should increase surface instability as the ground will still be baking in the sun. That’s when we should see the action. 

Full sun and blue sky here.  Thinking this might not be as crazy in BUF.  Interesting comment on the warmer air over the colder lake keeping the seiche and lake shore flooding aspect likely out of play today.  Worst winds will likely run from just NE of BUF through Batavia and into ROC. 

Forecast soundings continue to show 80+ knots at 850MB in the warm sector, and 60 knots just off the deck. It`s unlikely we will fully mix to 850MB, but a few thousand feet of diurnal mixing with sunshine appears likely, tapping into the 60 knot flow available just off the surface. This will translate into gusts 55-60 MPH across much of the region, with a corridor of 65+ MPH gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Unlike many of our wind events, the warm airmass over the cold lakes will result in a more stable boundary layer close to Lake Erie and Ontario, with the strongest wind gusts likely to be across inland areas and not close to the lakeshores.

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11 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Full sun and blue sky here.  Thinking this might not be as crazy in BUF.  Interesting comment on the warmer air over the colder lake keeping the seiche and lake shore flooding aspect likely out of play today.  Worst winds will likely run from just NE of BUF through Batavia and into ROC. 

Forecast soundings continue to show 80+ knots at 850MB in the warm sector, and 60 knots just off the deck. It`s unlikely we will fully mix to 850MB, but a few thousand feet of diurnal mixing with sunshine appears likely, tapping into the 60 knot flow available just off the surface. This will translate into gusts 55-60 MPH across much of the region, with a corridor of 65+ MPH gusts likely from the Niagara Frontier to Rochester. Unlike many of our wind events, the warm airmass over the cold lakes will result in a more stable boundary layer close to Lake Erie and Ontario, with the strongest wind gusts likely to be across inland areas and not close to the lakeshores.

That’s why I’m happy I’m heading back to the ROC!  But it’s the battle zone between those cold pockets and the inland areas that creates the deepest mixing IMO. 

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