Thinksnow18

Euro Hi-res also shows at the very end of its run what appears to be an eastern cold dump. Could be looking at our first flakes first week of November.

That makes roughly 14” since September 1st

That track right there is actually a perfect track for all of upstate during the winter. I agree with a lot of your post. Pattern memory is a thing too in the atmosphere and may continue into the cold months/

Its also only in the “leaning above” category which means plenty of cold shots, line it up right with the moisture and boom…

Rain looks to be ahead of schedule. Should be here In WNY by 1pm. Most models are way behind in the late afternoon early ev…at least per WIVB this morning

Just as surprised as the models being wrong as I am that the Keebler elves don’t make the cookies, Rudolph really not having a red nose and Tug Hill being an actual snow jinx

I’m not sure where that chatter evolved from due partly in most cases the models are in good agreement the PV stays weak for a while.

November ‘14???

I read on the AFD this morning that this weekend is the last time the first and freeze warnings will be used for the season…and if I’m correct they haven’t issued one yet. Let that sink in.

So. If you drive down transit heading north towards Lockport, that’s where the ridge at eastern hills is. The Sheridan dr underpass is the ridge to “transit Valley”. This COULD be one of the reasons why my area and north to UB are colder than KBUF…however it doesn’t make sense to the east towards Lancaster. That area was almost 9 degrees colder this am.

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

Again…46 at KBUF…and aren’t you near the lake now???

Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How…

That’s a lot of cold opportunities

I’m curious about pattern recognition memory. The PV starting off weak could benefit us as the winter unfolds.