Thinksnow18

Yeah im not worried at all. Plus 41 or 42 degrees lake temperature isn't end all especially when I believe sufficient cold air will be around for some time...it will all work out.

Gotta think that if these temp trends continue we are going to have a very BN month temperature wise for November...in fact I'd be willing to bet that from about the 15th of October to now has been very below average and there are only good signs ahead as previously posted above.

Probably just like tomorrow's system...an illusion that Copperfield would be proud of.

Liking the look of the indices towards the end of the month...definitely trending in the right direction as we head towards meteorological winter

It does appear that as we approached this storm thermal profiles trended warmer than forecast just 48 hours ago. It does appear likely that it will just be sloppy and a bit slushy at lower levels through Tuesday afternoon when the cold air deepens. Might squeak and inch or two Tuesday evening but I think that's up in the air as well. Looks like November will be below normal when all is said and done but without any great accumulating snows at the lower levels to write home about. Bring on December!!!

Is that, to my untrained eye, a lake response already forming at the eastern end of Lake Erie and out over the eastern Niagara Peninsula???

18z??? If so just saw the snow forecast 10 to 1 ratio kbuf was 4" ksyr 10"...this has been incredibly consistent the last 24 hours. I'm liking what im seeing...also a bit surprised the WWA is still in effect for northern Erie as latest AFD states most potential for more than 4" is southern Erie and Northwestern Chautauqua.

While I agree about the lake snows being all but dead for metro tomorrow the easterly track of the storm actually takes away any possibility of mixing or even rain at lower elevations Tuesday...AFD out of buffalo just mentioned that while the main storm will be hugging the coast it is the upper trough which will help drag the moisture back and create snow for Monday night and Tuesday...i still think Tuesday is 2 to 4 with a Genesee bonus of 5 in there but it's nit picky honestly

Gotta be honest the temp in Williamsville is still 33 and the radar and observations are showing moderate snow with the back edge of the precip almost upon us...not sure we ever see rain today and im curious about the warm wedge that's supposed to be here by 3 to 4pm.

That track would give WNY about 6 inches of snow...definitely as interesting to me as tomorrow morning is.

I don't have the privilege of seeing the euro...is that mix in CNY or all NY???

I think where you live is a slam dunk for 3 to 6...where I live in Williamsville a couple at best is my hope.

Moderate snow transit and wehrle...sticking to everything but roads.

You know I think it was BW that said how our local Mets weren't that good anymore...well I have to agree even more. I just watched WIVB 4 in buffalo and for next tues-Wed he has 37 and 40 degrees...i have looked at 1 model that shows temps that warm during that timeframe next week...oh and FWIW the 6z GFS has WNY and CNY getting pounded by next Tuesdays storm.

Love this for next week's storm: