Thinksnow18

Tug where are you at now? The forecast for temps the next 6 days are all below average and 4 of them in the upper 50's...

I agree about the clownmaps during the winter, but ultimately I chalk that up to ratios and storm intensity and track. In the spring summer and fall I kinda believe the liquid amounts of rainfall more than the accumulation of snow/sleet. Now I'm definitely not advocating were getting 4" to 6" by any stretch but 2" to 2 1/2" would not surprise me.

There is definitely a model that KBUF is looking at that's not impressive. Just not sure which one it is...

As long as this replicates itself in about 9 weeks or so I'll be fine with it

I think the Buffalo metro gets a good dose of LER tomorrow night thru Wed. All models showing about a 24 hour stretch of SW winds in that time frame and good moisture...too bad this wasn't 8 weeks from now...

For fun the 00z GFS has a really interesting retrograde low the second weekend of October that would give the Adirondacks their first flakes.

Why does the forecast for next week looking less chilly by the day?

The cold blast behind that looks even more impressive.

Looks like near peak conditions by Tupper Lake.

Is that lake effect rain?

That would be awesome to see it

Wow. Im not too familiar with hiking the way you are but that seems a few weeks early, no?

Are you thinking areas like the Adirondacks and maybe the tug gets there first flakes during that time frame?

I just noticed that on TT...mines been closed for the better part of 10 days now.. In my mind there was no sense sense hoping for a hot enough stretch and I do not own a heater yet...thats next year and then I may stretch it to October

I mean it did actually get cold this past weekend. It definitely WILL not happen like he's suggesting but I wouldn't be surprised if there are upper 40' s in the hills for highs with that type of trough.