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About Thinksnow18

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  1. Well out of those 4 pics I like the -EPO...you know im starting think back to 2009-10. If memory serves me it was a very cold January and February with a transient December...all with a mainly positive AO and NAO through that period.
  2. Actually im good with it, im a glass half full guy, always have been but with a realistic view built in! I actually just perused the 12z GFS and I absolutely love hour 192 (next Sunday) through just about the end of the run, there appears to be a good match with the GEFS that we will turn much colder towards the end of November early December...and as was previously stated my confidence is growing in this type of pattern because the gfs and euro both nailed the cold air in advance we just had and the blast a week ago. Getting excited.
  3. I have to say that February was incredible from a wall to wall cold and snow here in WNY...if memory serves me 2015 February was similar as well...heres to hoping!!!
  4. Yeah what you speak of would be perfect and my thinking is that type of pattern will begin to take shape in the mid of December and begin to take hold for a while bu late December early January...and to this point we are (at KBUF) almost 4 degrees below average for November and a good number of days forecast below the daily average for the remainder of the month...we just havent lined up any precip with the colder temps.
  5. I was actually just going to post the opposite...the wrf is showing a perturbed, albeit mildly, PV the end of November early December...the PV will be sliding into the eurasia side however cohen and others like the idea if colder air into the northeast, the problem im seeing is its dry air after a 1 or 2 day "warm up"then 2 to 3 days of truly chilly air but little moisture. Thinking thats how this pattern will be for a couple weeks until something disrupts the storm track south of here.
  6. Is that a gradient of 4" to 6" for KBUF?
  7. I've read it and thoroughly enjoy it! Not that the misery of the middle Atlantic snow lovers is a kick but the comments Crack me up.
  8. I follow you all on the Mid-Atlantic boards quite often, never have I witnessed so many highs and so many lows...there should be a bi-polar blog for those times when the models tease you guys!
  9. Agree completely with what you just said...even Cohen is torn as to the signals that are showing up at this time...we are in Williamsville now, but trust me I made every effort to move to the traditional snow belts!!!
  10. I tried to copy the 240 HR of the 00z euro model...shows positive heights out west and what looks like some deep troughiness in the east...the EPS actually is about a day or 2 earlier but is close...interesting if it holds www.tro.txt
  11. That storm was the absolute biggest tease to me! At that time we lived in Cheektowaga closer to the buffalo border and we received about 16" of snow while 1 mile to the south there was 83"...I couldn't believe I missed seeing such an epic event by that little bit.
  12. If it's in the buffalo news it must be right!!! Lol... we average at the airport (KBUF) about 7.4" for November...we jumped to 27.7" for our snowiest month in December...now a few years back whilst I was on the wivb weather blog, Don Paul the lead met at the time, showed the new 30 year climo for November was down to 7.4" from a bit over 11"...in the early 2000'stages and 1990's we had our share of early season LES events but they have become much more infrequent as the century has gone on. At least seeing temps this November, which are much more normal than last November which was a torch, gives me hope that the fire hose pac jet won't be as prevalent this year and to this point it hasn't. That doesn't mean things can't change however there are signs the package is beginning a change by the beginning of December that would favor a PNA. I am definitely cautiousabout the forecast but at the same time more optimistic than last year.
  13. Well being so early in the snow season I'm not concerned, yet. I think of this a battle of the warm and cold where as we we get to December climo is in our favor more...anything now is gravy and unexpected.
  14. I think as much as the GFS is overdone on the cold that is overdone on the warm side, in fact from the mid Atlantic side the EPS actually backs off on the Canada torch after next week. Time will tell. Still I also don't see any predicted days of consecutive above normal warmth...alot of ups and downs with neither being dominant
  15. FWIW at least we are below average temperature wise for the month and I don't see that changing...looking yesterday to thus point and counting yesterday as well we have 9 days below average 4 above and one right on the daily average, we will go above today, thence below tomorrow and Friday, and then kimmy da exchange days for a while...cpc had us at better odds for above average for the month so there's that at least.