Thinksnow18

I mean IF all these model runs even verify 1/2 of what is being shown 15 days out most if upstate will be 2 feet plus.

The only way 6" is with 8 to 1 ratios...the snow will be 15 or closer to 20 to 1 by the heart of the storm. Even .75 with ratios in that area are 12 inches plus.

No way 6 to 12 with enhancement...thats your cautious side speaking!!! The moisture and the dynamics are there...if the metro got 6" that would be an epic bust imo.

I agree with this too and trust me he's not pulling a forecast...but he wanted to show everyone what he believes this storm could be. I actually think it wise to give people enough notice to change plans if traveling or such.

Amazing when most are flush hits

Mike Cejka from WIVB here in Buf gave his earliest thoughts...he said 12" to 18" metro north and 18" to 24" south over the higher terrain...he stated these were on the "lower side" as some model ( guessing the Euro) is much greater!!! Can we just fast forward to thursday already!!!

Agreed. They actually discussed the possibility this morning's AFD but I think it would be confusing with the slider on Thursday night Friday morning of 2 to 4. Thursday afternoon AFD my guess.

2014 actually had 2 Blizzard warnings at KBUF...the first in early January which was lake effect/enhanced hybrid and the second was in early March around the 11th or 12th time frame. We also had an odd Blizzard warning out of nowhere in January 2017 from Lake effect that blew up and caught everyone by surprise...its the same storm that a huge pileup occurred on the 90 East bound right in front of the airport.

From what I'm cleaning this isn't just a wave runner, the phasing the EURO is showing exploded this storm and really enhances rates with lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. I remember a very similar storm in January 2005 that dumped 18" in NT where I was living at the time. Lots of lake enhancement and high ratios. Very similar to me at this time.

FWIW 6z at 228 has 18" at KBUF and 19" at KSYR...at 10 to 1 ratios.

We are in the midst of potential historical weather in upstate NY , the kind that could become an analog talked about for decades like 77, 85, 2014 and 15. I don't think it's out of bounds to realistically discuss 2 to 3 feet of snow over a good portion of upstate within the next 10 days and bitter cold thereafter.

Yeah that seems like a huge change out if nowhere.

So a miss???

This is going to be a very exciting period for sure...all models showing the PV right above the upper great lakes in Ontario with WSW winds in the mean most of next week. It's hard not to get over excited at this point...but I'm trying to keep it in check!!!

Mike was adamant. I think this next 6 to 8 weeks has the chance to be epic.