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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. We might be seeing the first area wide snow advisories for the entire CWA
  2. Euro brings in widespread snows on Sunday night Monday and at the end of the run.
  3. Tug!!! It appears on radar you might be getting done snow?
  4. Not certain why that solution could even be possible? There’s cold air to the west and north…since when does a northerly glow wrap in mild air? Answer? Never. Toss
  5. It just seems that we’re doomed to accept this new normal…the models over doing it showing big cold outbreaks and snowstorms to cool downs and cutters. Just trying to absorb it all.
  6. Local Mets keep insisting that next Monday night and Tuesday we’re getting a significant storm…models disagree…are the ensembles showing a different outcome?
  7. You think the Lowville area seems on the low side, you should see the doughnut hole around TugHill Matt’s area…
  8. Quite a few hits on the ensembles for WNY…exactly where we DONT want to be…
  9. Take that look 2/3rds of Dec-Feb and that’s a winter we can all get with
  10. Has anyone noticed the west end of Lake Erie on radar? Those are some VERY healthy looking plumes aimed right at the metro/northtowns once the synoptic is done. The other lakes have really fired up with the passing of this S/W and thus could be interesting for a bit…
  11. It’s not quite as covered in Williamsville, sticking to most surfaces. NWS calling for 1-2” for Niagara Frontier tonight and if we’re being honest I see the higher end of that towards 2”. If you told me Thursday that we’d be closing in on potentially 4” over the weekend I wouldn’t believe it. IF the models are on to the cold in 10 days, we might be having a November like days of old.
  12. Good call. 12z continues the trend. Real deep cold by end of run. Would be 20’s for highs
  13. Snow ending in Williamsville. Hard to judge and with melting I’m guessing about 1 1/2”. Not bad at all
  14. Really liking the next 10 days…feeling somewhat optimistic something will pop. GFS and Euro are surprisingly on the same page this far in advance
  15. Don’t see much movement in the band…could be a 2-3” accumulation In the heart of the band
  16. Officially all snow in Lancaster! Beginning to stick to car roof tops!!!
  17. Verification score: 100%. Mix of rain and snow in Williamsville and now Lancaster.
  18. So the 6z has the same storm, but the heaviest axis of snow is a bit further west…this is perfect…until the 12z comes out and it becomes a cutter…oh and current obs is rain and 37…
  19. Looking at the 6z GFS does anyone else feel like you’re on a roller coaster? 3 days of cold, 3 days of warm, 3 cold, 3 warm…
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