Thinksnow18

49° at KBUF with moderate rain...its early, but this is beginning to get the juices flowing!

There are a Lot of moving parts to having the perfect setup for heavy LES. 2 of the keys in my opinion are relative humidity and unidirectional wind vectors (no shear). There have been many occasions where the wind vector was right, the cold air at 850 MB was more than 13° c difference between the lake temp and the air above however the air at all level was too dry. Subsequently we've also witnessed having the cold air aloft and the humidity but there's great amount a of shear at different levels above the lakes. That's what makes forecasting LES so difficult. And what makes following so fun.

Wait until Friday night when we will looking at a 50 degree variance from Tuesday's heat.

This link is crack for the weather enthusiasts on this forum, especially the snow hounds...productivity will be taking a backseat today...

I remember that because I was in 3rd grade at Ohio elementary in North Tonawanda and it snowed heavily for about 15 minutes...i was stoked, only to find out the 1/2" we got in southern Niagara paled I to comparison to what my grandparents received in kaisertown! It was my very first time being disappointed in the weather...the first of MANY!!!

I'm intrigued by the CPC outlook above. Much of the guidance I have looked at at this early juncture would point to an early onset to winter like last year and a milder second half. One of those drivers appears to be early PV disruptions tgat have already occurred as right now it is split...im also not seeing PAC jet really taking shape as of now either. I'm hopeful this winter is similar in snowfall to last year without all the quick thaws.