Thinksnow18

Well it may take us out of the deformation zone but I'm still thinking 4 to 7 due to higher snow ratios

And I agree it is an advisory event as well but this way the NWS can't get caught with their pants down...too many options here so feel free to get creative...

Look it's a wobble...lets see what the 12z euro and GFS says before jumping off into the pit of misery...

It's the NAM it does NAM things...

If the current tracks hold I believe by tomorrow am we will all be under a winter storm watch for Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

6z GFS is same track and QPF output...latest AFD actually says the models have honed in on a track that would leave the CWA in the NW flank deformation zone late Monday into Monday night which will lead to several inches of accumulation with significant accumulations not out of the question...

I think we were always looking at 4 to 7 with higher amounts on the ridges and North and east of buffalo due to enhancement from Ontario. The ensembles still show about .4" to .9" area wide. The operational models will always hiccup. Now, I was just perusing the Mid Atlantic forum on their Oct Nov long term discussion. Couple of posters who I know are legit have discussed at great length with the help of other Mets a -NAO establishing itself towards Thanksgiving and lasting into early December. The MJO certainly agrees on its end according to the CPC and mentions, however, that the long range (think CFS etc) models disagree. If this holds true and comes to fruition then later next week's "warm up" to slightly below November averages will be a re-loading period and retrograding lows were discussed. I know if that happens there will be some chasing going on.

Ok the 255 report is updated and it now includes ploeable snow Monday night and Tuesday for the whole CWA

So if you read the AFD for KBUF it STILL downplays this storm calling the 12z euro an outlier still and that this is going to be an off coast low??? WTF??? A little too early for the spiked egg nog boys...

I'm starting to get a little more confident in a solution that all the major models are showing. We might get a mix towards the finger lakes for a time so if the track continues as it is currently modeled the totals could be higher...still 24 to 36 hours out to feel comfortable and at that time a winter storm watch might be talked about

Yes it definitely looks like both the Euro and the GOOFUS are coming into pretty good agreement. Almost too good this far out.

Snow also picking up in Williamsville. IMBY. And IMFY as well...

Well I'll make sure to keep my skis flat and pointing downhill bit FWIW the QPF is quite a bit more even with the lesser impressive 12z run.

Just read the NWS KBUF AFD...they are hugging the GFS's nuts. They basically call the euro an outlier even though the UKMET and the less reliable ICON and cmc all agree with the euro...model bias???

So that would be wednesday-thursday timeframe???

Still on the map but maybe a touch SE and a little weaker than the 00z and still putting out anywhere from .4 to .9 of QPF for the 24 hour period which with temps in the lower 20's would equate to ratios of 12 to 1 to even 15 to 1...5" to about a foot in some of the higher elevations and lake enhanced areas.

Hey doesn't the Euro run the same four times the GOOFUS does??? Im only seeing the 00z on pivotal weather.

Just perused the ensembles for the EPS and GEFS and both still show the storm track and precipitation values are on target for next week.

Just leaving North Tonawanda and it's almost snowing moderately...flake size has increased and slushy coatings on everything but the roads...

To piggy back on what you're saying looks to be pretty much on target with higher synoptic totals due to the storm track above. This storm we *might* be getting early next week could be the predominant storm track for the winter.

Like I said there is pretty out of character uniformity right now on all the major models.

Fair point...but todays system was a little more in doubt as the models were all over the place for to days event...however that will be a powerful Arctic front with a lot if energy and several impulses moving along it...i just read the Cleveland AFD and they are much more bullish than our BUF add which literally mentions a small blurb.

I buy them for one reason...the cold that will impact us early next week will be mid January cold. I also believe enhancement from Lake Ontario will also bump up these totals. I like the consistency as of now between models so the threat seems to be increasing only 4 days out now.

The 00z Euro has the same flush hit. And this type of snow would be powdery so those accums could be higher due to higher snow ratios. Something indeed to watch.

That look is actually plausible. An apps runner that switches to a coastal...eouldnt crush us but the euro accums would be about right.