Thinksnow18

Here's to hoping it's on to something because truthfully the GFS isn't remarkably different

If the GOOFUS is correct the "warm up" after next week's cold snap lasts about 5 days then heading towards the week of Thanksgiving it gets much colder again...i gotta be honest I hope we don't see the same transient temps we had last winter save for 2 weeks in January...although we do appear to have plenty is systems to deal with

I think we also got a bit spoiled last November with almost 11" at KBUF. I also think as that timeframe nears and things become clearer we might enjoy an over achiever snow event during that time.

Anyone look at the 18 GFS output??? It gets better and better...

Damn it they have as much of a clue as we do!!! They no longer perform true forecasting...thesw models are incredibly fickle and change at any little change...that said im truly starting to get excited as its possible by next Tuesday it will look an awful lot like winter around mist of upstate NY

It only goes out to Thursday at midday...

I'll take it...even in Williamsville I can get some streamers from Huron and Georgian Bay...may not get much but it will definitely keep the mood going

I knew it would come back! Now how do we keep it right where it's modeled...

I think this will still shift north with time for one reason...cold outbreaks don't normally push as far south as modeled which would mean a shift further north due to the high not being as strong.

Reading the AFD this morning from KBUF the long range offers us all some hope for our first accumulations Thursday through Saturday.

I remember the October surprise storm here in buffalo back in 2006 and one of my budfies neighborhood was odd in the case that one side if the street lost power and the other side didn't...youve never seen so many extension chords gong from one side if the street to the other...coolest scene

Yeah I recall. After a pretty long stretch of non synoptic events in November it would be something to have 2 November's in a row!!! Hey how's the fence repair going???

I'm not ready to give the GFS any marks yet...it has shown over the past 10 days lead time crazy cold and solutions and in the end the EURO was leaned on more...i will say this though to Wolfies point the GFS actually had this scenario modeled 2 days ago and backed off it, now the Euro has it...makes me think the GFS comes back around to it by Monday and were all looking at our first accumulation.

Well the NWS BUF also discusses isn't and has leaned a lot more on the Euro the past 2 weeks and hasn't been wrong...yet

So...the CPC released their November temperature outlook on October 17th...most of the country had better than average odds for AN temp anomalies...2 weeks later I still don't see a "what the eff were we seeing" from their office...

At one point this morning here in greater buffalo/ Niagara Falls areas there were approximately 68000 combined outages between National Grid and NYSEG customers...i believe 3 school districts closed for the day and my middle child's school was open but running on generator

The 12z GFS would have a synoptic event next Friday and Saturday that would indeed give us all the first accumulations!

From the New England forum...theres more too...i think that 3 to 4 week outlook from last Friday changed quite a bit...that 8 to 14 day outlook shows quite the lock on the east.

USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted 1 hour ago It appears the first half of November will favor a storm track north of the US/Canada border into Ontario and Quebec, Canada Provinces favoring a heavy snow track through these areas. This future snow depth would allow cold air masses to reach further east and south towards the end of November and into December. This will allow a further east and south extension of the cold fronts that move in from central Canada.

There are some good signs that the PV elongated over the second half of November keeping the trough over the east...ill attach if I can.

I'm starting to get the feeling looking at the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlook that the CPC November temperature outlook is going to end up wildly wrong...cant post it so if someone else can that would be awesome

Looks like this first push of colder air this weekend will not be as cold as the second push later next week...its with that push I expect an actual lake response of note.

Lots of really strong signals showing up in the first part of November and beyond as the PV looks to be in a potential split by the middle of the month. CPC discusses the AO going negative after this week and possibly staying neutral negative through mud month...if this appears correct then the week or two leading up to Thanksgiving COULD be interesting around here, synoptically or lake effect.

This is Norman Bates kinda crazy.

So the KBUF AFD just kibashed the GFS extended for next week saying it's going to turn colder but not to the extent of the GFS model...