Thinksnow18

I agree...plenty of time, but damn it got the juices flowing for the upcoming winter!!!

Last two runs of the GFS have really backed off the lake effect chances for the end of the month...the powerful low it had been showing is now just a week wave that doesn't get shunted westward by the blocking over Greenland...instead it's progressive and theres only a SW that comes out of Canada with little fanfare...one thing I'm noticing is how much more magnified the cold bias is so far on the new GFS.

Ok the GFS might have very well dipped into the "special brownies" but it's far more reliable than the Canadian model...i think if the Euro temps and the GFS temps are somewhere in the middle (-7c to -8c) then it will depend on time of day...daylight hours cold rain, nighttime wet snow.

GFS is bipolar right now but the CPC does agree it's going to go below normal around that time frame.

I think the euro and the GEM get us to that same scenario but one or two days later.

It does have quite a bit of support with the ensembles that we will have the cold air, but as we know timing it up will be the key.

I just posted the text version of that!

12z is really efforting on Halloween to get the WNY area what looks to be everyone's first flakes due to a shortwave and lake enhanced/hybrid. Not buying in just an observation.

You know I'm on the fence on that. I've heard both arguments and from what I recall the numbers say we don't see much of an influence from warmer lake waters earlier. I do know that the greater difference in lapse rates happen in the late fall early winter when sharp Arctic intrusions happen over the warmer waters

It will end up in the middle of the 2...won't be as warm as the euro and won't be as cold as the GFS...avg to a bit below average temps...ill say this much...if you give me a storm track like the one shaping up I think there will be a lot of cutters with the chance for significant LES events in the metro just like last year...similar in the Bermuda high pushing the storm track more northerly.

NOAA is to focused as I stated yesterday on ENSO alone. The other variables might as well be voodoo or black magic.

I dont believe that's it, however I do believe NOAA's biggest fault lies in what they do not take into consideration...the MJO, Siberian snow cover, PDO, QBO, and most importantly current trends in the indices...i think that by just using ENSO, and the long range models such as the CFS and others they pigeon hole themselves...seriously look at the weather channels outlook...it looks just like you believe it would based on other factors...has the West warm and the northern tier from the Dakota's to Maine below normal. It's exactly what you'd expect from what the indicators are right now.

Now, head to weather.com there's is MUCH different and actually references NOAA's outlook...probably a much more realistic pic due to a neutral ENSO IMO...

It hasn't been nearly as robust here in WNY, specifically the Niagara Frontier, but we have had light to occasionally moderate lake effect rain from Lake Ontario owning to your earlier comment that if this was a true noreaster this could've been a true monster.

Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???

Crazy is also what the GFS is showing STILL for the last 4 days of its run...

Its one run but the 6z GOOFUS would have VERY chilly weather in about 1 week through the end of the run

Agreed...plus the trees that haven't exploded yet in color will after the next 4 days of near 70° daytime and 45° nights...heading out to Letchworth with the wife and kids Sunday to see the foliage...should be spectacular

7 weeks and we'd be grinning ear to freaking ear.

Very interesting observation for me at least this morning. I drove my wife to work at 6:40ish and when we walked to our vehicle, like WW stated, only frost/frozen water droplets were on the roof of the car...windows were just wet with dew, however when I arrived home about 35 minutes later the front windshield on the same car was now frozen even though the sun had begun to rise.

Post it 50 more times...thats how many more times I want to like this post

Trying to post the end of the run GOOFUS at hours 378 and 384...(no I'm not having a liquid lunch) and if by any chance this comes to fruition that would produce the first flakes in the higher terrain in the CWA. That would line up well with what Wolfie just posted.

Just took a peak at the current area temps in WNY...kbuf is at 48, kiag is at 49, Springville 44, olean 41...the only 50 temp on the map is at Dunkirk which literally sucks in lake Erie water...im thinking the expected highs are not met today which might lead to lower temps than predicted right now for the overnight period.

Now let's have that show up in about 8 weeks...

Have you looked at the updated 6 to 10 and 8 to 14??? Remarkably different from yesterday above.