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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    There is definitely a correlation in temps I believe, not sure how to swipe it from the Mid Atlantic forum but one of their regular posters to the FRD or PSUHoffman posted a map that showed if we are below average in November there was a correlation to negative anomalies that upcoming winter as well...let me see if I can locate it
  2. Thinksnow18
    If you break it down to get to that percent above normal the airport would need 93"...so in otherwards normal snowfall from this point on and we are still 6 weeks from actual winter...even though meteorological winter on December 1st is really where I start counting.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Damn I was just thinking the same thing!!! Here's to hoping we get another 2 or 3 big synoptic events and one blockbuster LES event around Christmas
  4. Thinksnow18
    Just finished the driveway and the neighbors house also 11.1" in Williamsville but a little less on grass about 8" 1/2". Nice start to the season!!!
  5. Thinksnow18
    Buff Weather appears to have a good eye...just as the back end approaches you can see the area fill in on a NE/SW orientation. I'm optimistic of 10" and a foot is not impossible from buffalo to lake Ontario
  6. Thinksnow18
    It's lightened up a bit here in Williamsville I'm approaching 5" for the storm and look good for another 4 or 5 with more heavy snow over the lake heading towards WNY...looks like a fun 4 or 5 hours
  7. Thinksnow18
    The precip shield is moving ENE and the low is as Well so it won't be until about 4 it 5 am.
  8. Thinksnow18
    I'm curious about the nws amount...i have my board on the back deck and I'm a smudge over 3"...3.1 to be exact.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Snowfall rates and flake size have picked up quite a bit and the last grass blades have succumbed to the now moderate snow. I'm feeling optimistic of an 9" or 10" when all said and done. Looks like mid January outside.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Snow is picking up again and so are the dendrites...really waiting for the show in a couple hours
  11. Thinksnow18
    I have sleet and a mix in williamsville...WTF!!!
  12. Thinksnow18
    Kinda freaking a bit...the snow I Williamsville has really wavered and is barely snowing ATM...almost looks like there's a dendrites issue...anyone???
  13. Thinksnow18
    Flake size keeps going from tiny to decent but hasn't kept any consistency...
  14. Thinksnow18
    Intensity is picking up and all roadways are covered...if that death band gets here right in time for rush hour it could be a huge mess
  15. Thinksnow18
    Ok couple observations...1) where are you Buff Weather?!?!?! And 2) I think the roads and sidewalks are on the precipice of caving her in Williamsville...temp is 29 and snow is finally accumulating on my stone patio and on some mud in The yard where the dogs have trampled it.
  16. Thinksnow18
    So while the flake size has increased the rate has slowed so it almost appears like mood flakes...this must be the part OSU was discussing regarding the issues over the Niagara Frontier
  17. Thinksnow18
    Snow has definitely picked up a bit but flake size and warm ground is hampering any real accums on the concrete or streets...grass has snow but you can see it's not accumulating well, yet. I think this systems timing couldn't be better for the heavier access of snow just as we lose the diurnal effects.
  18. Thinksnow18
    Metallica has something to say about that...oh wait Hetfield is in rehab...carry on
  19. Thinksnow18
    If that happens im going to combust...also per radar returns it appears the snow will begin to pick up the pace around 10am around the Niagara Frontier.
  20. Thinksnow18
    I'm not discounting the GOOFUS snow output on the 6z. Im seeing a pretty clear indication of lake enhancement from Ontario for this event and it appears the models are slowing down the storm somewhat. If the GOOFUS is to be believed it doesn't stop snowing until 12z tomorrow.
  21. Thinksnow18
    Same in Williamsville...starting to get amped up reading 1" an hour snowfall for several hours later today and tonight.
  22. Thinksnow18
    I think the first 2 or 3 inches will be wet but once daylight ends on no day evening and the temps in the 20's will lend to a fluffier snow. Oh and the Euro is still the king!!!
  23. Thinksnow18
    While not issuing any watches at this time, the NWS has bumped up totals to 5" to 8" area wide.
  24. Thinksnow18
    So when does the NWS buf start to panic after, for days mind you, shitting on the Euro???
  25. Thinksnow18
    NWS buf AFD at 2:30 states lower qpf and the more easterly track of the LP as to now making a warning criteria event less likely...what I don't agree with is they, and many others, always have issues with enhancement from Lake Ontario with every NE to northerly wind. In a NE direction Niagara co and the Niagara peninsula of Ontario would be the bullseye not Monroe and Orleans as they suggest. Otherwise looks about right.
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