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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    If anything it looks more impressive than modeled. I think the models are having a tough time and the moisture over Michigan proves that. This was supposed to have little moisture to work with, as worded by the NWS just last night...obviously that is not the case.
  2. Thinksnow18
    Don't believe that was in the forecast for today...could be just in time to mess up the afternoon commute as we drop to near freezing temps.
  3. Thinksnow18
    There also appears to be quite a squall linev over southern Ontario.
  4. Thinksnow18
    What I'm a bit surprised about us there seems to be more moisture than previously thought...and the start time in the metro is much earlier than anticipated. Could be sneaky good.
  5. Thinksnow18
    Lake snow over Michigan looks super impressive. Looks like the totals have been bumped up to almost 5 inches on WIVB in-house model for tomorrow...grain of salt I know.
  6. Thinksnow18
    BW this one's for you...i watched 4 and 7 today for our local "mets" word on the lake effect. Both channels never have the Wednesday band further north than 20A. I laughed at the girl on 4 because she at least realized how asinine this was and still as I the lake snow would reach the metro and drop 2 to 5...the girl on 7? Clueless as they come saying nothing for the metro and 1 to 3 as far north as 20A...i want don Paul back...
  7. Thinksnow18
    Huh. Could be a Northtowns special. I remember that scenario a few times but one that sticks out the most was 2008 we picked up about 10" in Cheektowaga as the band was "swinging "through. Lake effect...you never know.
  8. Thinksnow18
    I haven't been overly impressed with the CPC the last 2 month's...the CPC touted November warm...wrong...they touted December warm and to this point wrong...there will be a lot of variability the next 2 eweeks but I'm not certain it equates to AN temps in the mean.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Does anyone else see the strange numbers here compared to the AFD itself? Map says 4 to 6 the AFD says 2 to 4...guess those 2 Mets didn't speak to each other.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Back to the weather...which looks to be as bad as the bills offense yesterday right through Christmas. I think what's most concerning to me is we aren't torching but with each storm system we appear to be on the warm side. There isn't a strong Bermuda high and I know there isn't a -NAO or -AO to help suppress these systems a but and keep them from cutting to our west
  11. Thinksnow18
    Not to be the one that mentioned it to you earlier but Josh is a game manager. And what Th at means is he can make enough plays to help win a game but he needs a supporting cast to do it. If it weren't for this defense that plays lights out ball week in and week out, Josh would not be able to put the team on his back and throw for 380 and 4 tds to either win games or get into shoot outs with other qb's. He's the best we've had of a mediocre bunch but I believe this is what you'll get in his career.
  12. Thinksnow18
    GFS looks better towards the 20th timeframe onwards...in fact we might see a nice synoptic Christmas present.
  13. Thinksnow18
    It did give the metro and or just south into the southtowns the best chance on Wednesday for warning criteria snows.
  14. Thinksnow18
    So it appears the earlier op runs were right...hopefully end of December and January are much better than this
  15. Thinksnow18
    At that position I'm confused why the winds wouldn't be backing to SW or even SSW...any thoughts?
  16. Thinksnow18
    That wintery pattern that was looking great yesterday??? Rain, lake effect, rain, rain snow mix, east coast rain storm (?) And front with you guessed it...rain.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Love the West/Southwesterly wording...
  18. Thinksnow18
    Remember young Jedi, moisture can be different in relatively close areas, there will also, no doubt, be multiple shortwave rounding down like pinwheel around the parent low. We will be ok I think.
  19. Thinksnow18
    For now im alright with that...we still have several weeks of opportunities after that before the lake begins to freeze.
  20. Thinksnow18
    yeah except that S/W will bring the lake snows into the metro for a time...on the flip side how do we get rain from a low pressure over the east coast??? That would be a snowstorm not rain storm.
  21. Thinksnow18
    I'll selfishly take the #1 analog for 2000 Alex
  22. Thinksnow18
    If it's a west-southwest flow I would be ecstatic for that. S/W will get the band to the metro much easier than a general westerly flow. Might not get the highest amounts but I'll be in the game as they say
  23. Thinksnow18
    Noticed on the 18z GFS that the system we were drooling over on the 6z run is now a giant cutter...again...im hoping this isn't a precursor of last year's cold to mild to cold to mild save for the 2 week stretch in the second half of January last winter.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Hell at this far range I'll accept almost 50% @ KBUF
  25. Thinksnow18
    Picked up about 3 very fluffy inches in east Williamsville. Pretty big surprise seeing none of that was forecast.
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