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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Was just going to mention that...but...didnt the euro pick up on this being just a low end wave of low pressure 2 days ago??? If that's right then the tuesd Wed storm might be the euro FTW
  2. Thinksnow18
    I'm beginning to think the euro is correct...it was first to sniff out the low for tomorrow going south of us and the the GFS caved.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Minor is the new major when it comes to WNY snowfall...yes I have sold my soul...
  4. Thinksnow18
    Still thinking this is an area wide 3 to 6. 3 towards southern tier and 4 to 6 northern Erie over to roch
  5. Thinksnow18
    So we're within 48 hours and low confidence...
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yeah those are great points wolfie. Just wondering what they are seeing that they call for precip type issues
  7. Thinksnow18
    The ensembles already show that western trough moving east at the end of that time frame, ala last year almost to a T. More concerning is the NWS just basically stated in their AFD that it will primarily rain Saturday and not switch over until late evening to over night...which model actually shows that scenario I ask?
  8. Thinksnow18
    2, 3, 4 or 5 inches is better than the grass and mud I have all over my damn house right now due to this God awful pattern...ill take the lake effect opportunity mon thru Wed
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah the euro seems like it partied with cousin Eddie and also has a plastic plate in its head...
  10. Thinksnow18
    I'm not buying into accums yet...the 12z has the entire low staying in central pa never getting into NY and it still shows 1 to 3...not buying that at all.
  11. Thinksnow18
    I actually like this system for the Rochester area. I can see a way where, with enhancement from the lake, that roch ends up in th 5 to 8 or 6 to 10 range. The system is trending colder and that's a good scenario for you with NE then northerly winds.
  12. Thinksnow18
    Hey 3 to 6 and then a couple more shortwaves and colder temps until late next week will at least make it resemble winter out here.
  13. Thinksnow18
    Actually it's diving out of Canada and stays north...either way with marginally cold air around that would be a mix or rain changing to snow.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Just about all of those members are good hits for western and central NY
  15. Thinksnow18
    Yeah bastardi is to weather as PT Barnum was to the circus. The NWS AFD is discussing moderate (think 3 to 6?) Accums for Saturday from buffalo to roch and North...with their most likely outcome 1 to 3 but state that if the cooler ensembles verify could be more due to enough QPF.
  16. Thinksnow18
    If we can get the canadian high to become a little stronger and force the front further south and east Saturday could be a much different outcome
  17. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I find that their longer range has not been very up to date. I'm expecting the 4pm update or tomorrow AFD to be different...also all models show what could be a decent clipper lake effect event Monday night to Wednesday.
  18. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I'm not sure why you guys are jumping ship so early...tomorrow is January 1st...there are 60 or so good days of winter left if not more. Relax.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Im beginning to think the above model run is where we see the 18z GFS trying to get to as well...it is Tuesday so this storm is only 5 days away...
  20. Thinksnow18
    Freak there's a new thread...
  21. Thinksnow18
    Snowing and sticking decently in Williamsville ground has a light wire slushy coating
  22. Thinksnow18
    At the current 37 to 38 degrees I doubt that's all snow when it rolls through
  23. Thinksnow18
    Must be quite a bit of virga going on in the leading edge of the precip shield as its neither raining or snowing here.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Models looked better for snowfall overnight...gfs 6z has the clipper back for late in the weekend with plenty of cold around COULD be a chance for some appreciable snows with lake effect setting up during that time.
  25. Thinksnow18
    Same old story. The colder air 400 miles to our west will modify enough to keep us from anything substantial.
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