Thinksnow18

If that were remotely correct that band, which happens to be just about directly over my area of Williamsville, would drop about 6" of pure fluff...i can't EVER remember a time that a band dropped that much whose origin was lake Huron.

Lmao 1.4" at KBUF? Honestly just rain the whole time. That's as useful as a prison with no cells

This is a shitty storm.

They discussed a more widespread LES hybrid for Thursday with higher ratios as temps plummet...this actually looks plausible...on another note the local met in buffalo showed the euro output for Sat-sun and it was at 4.1" at KBUF and the GFS was 7"...the difference in reading is the timing of the cold air Saturday night...gfs is right, more snow, euro slower, less snow.

What about when they showed warm for November? That didn't work out. CPC to this moment has us on the edge of BN temps for January that was remade on Dec 31st...not even close.

I think, which doesn't mean much, that the models are just not adept at picking up the new changes that drive our weather. It seemed years ago it was much more simple with forecasting...today we have no less than 10 to 15 different indices and drivers we need to monitor...get 11 right but 2 wrong and it may not end up how it should, or the indices could be showing worst case scenario but we have a great winter...both have happened in the past 10 years and I do not believe these models are good enough to be accurate.

And KBUF for an hour or two.

If you're going with the this track is different, and I'm in agreement with that, then I believe this is the euro over amping itself as it normally does...o think with the impending pattern change coming the models are all having a difficult time exactly how that'll happen. This may not be set until Friday

It also was for Thursday first as well and has now come south...if that trend continues I expect Saturday to follow suit.

Looks like the 12z euro wants to still keep the majority of the precip as snow.

Not bad most are 6" for WNY

Agreed. At this point it changes the pattern I suppose.

Through 132 hours only giving KBUF 4" KSYR 7". That's much less than at any point. I think the wed-thus system will play a big role in the eventual track for Saturday.

12z in...worst run through 108 yet. Less front end snow, more rain in the middle near the low. What I find truly intriguing is the HP over eastern Canada...if you roll through hours 96 through 108, it goes from Eastern Canada, to the mid Atlantic in 12 hours...that seems quite fast.

It's why im kinda excited...our track record as a group has been, well, as good as zippy chippy, dick trickle and the 2017 Cleveland Browns...heres to hoping the BUF NWS finally knows more than we do...

KBUF seems hell bent on there being a good amount of Lake enhancement south and Southeast of the lakes on Sunday and Sunday night as the first low acts as a inverted trough bringing Atlantic moisture back over the lakes on a NNW direction.

That storm would be an old fashioned 12 to 18 all over WNY

My thought is 4 to 8 from the thump and the back side then another 3 or 4 areawide Sunday with widespread lake enhancement...i wouldn't be shocked if by Monday most of WNY is low end 10"

Read the buf AFD...it made me tingle a bit...

I think Once the first low gets over taken by the second low off the coast it will be a colder situation Saturday night.

Still a lot of snowfall on the 6z...this run also looks strange to me how the LP jumps from the middle of the country to Wisconsin then basically moves ENE from there. Still not a lot of warmth per the models but I'm guessing with this run we thump, mix, then lighter snows/lake enhanced backside.

So is the 6z GFS...well more north than yesterday's runs. We move on .

Well slap my ass and call me fanny...buf actually updated the weekend storm and...they gave it staying mainly as snow.....evem with the overhead track...

That's not updated yet...thats still this morning's report...waiting for the 4pm AFD

Actually I saw this at noon on lunch...mike actually stated that was the euro output...even though I hate to give him a pass...