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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    One thing the NWS has said is the GFS, for once, is the warmer model and is being discounted. Latest afd states what we've been saying now for about 24 hours is that the precip buff north and east will have almost no changeover. That may include the Syracuse area north
  2. Thinksnow18
    So the winter weather advisory is still in place for N. Erie from 7pm tonight until 6pm tomorrow...but the difference is they upped the accums from 1 to 3 to 3 to 5 during the first part...if the second part is the same 6 to 10 is what is I've been thinking all along, but wouldn't meet WSW criteria because it's more that 24 hours. Oh well still so much better than the grass I've seen far too often this winter.
  3. Thinksnow18
    For the first event or the second event?
  4. Thinksnow18
    Odd...look where the heaviest stripe of snow is...
  5. Thinksnow18
    K2...and bring my $2.
  6. Thinksnow18
    I mean that's pretty damn consistent
  7. Thinksnow18
    That's my call as well. Looks fun. And I might have to dust off the snow blower yet...
  8. Thinksnow18
    I would bet you a garbage plate that northern Erie does better than advertised. I'll state 7" is the total for both events...you in?
  9. Thinksnow18
    12z GFS never flips to rain buffalo north during the run...goes to mixed precip and a little ice but never plain rain. And FWIW all models are showing greatest accums in WNY in the 1 1/2 counties they with held the WSW for...just sayin
  10. Thinksnow18
    I'm not sold on the man but what strikes me is even it shows more snow for the northern counties. My guess is it'll all be about nowcasting the event.
  11. Thinksnow18
    What happened?
  12. Thinksnow18
    18z and winds are still out of the north.
  13. Thinksnow18
    Notice the hole in northern Erie? Yet almost 2/3rds of Niagara are 8 to 12 but not included in a WSW? It also appears to my eye that lake enhanced area is on a NNE wind. There's more snow to the SW Niagara county than there is to the NW part of the county which would not indicate NW winds. I think this will change overnight tonight.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Any one have the overall accum map? If the trend continues I'm really wondering what they're looking at for Niagara county at minimum.
  15. Thinksnow18
    Actually he's showing the opposite...and is literally showing the Euro accums not his own estimates. Plus if the storm track is correct and it goes to Eastern NY as the GFS shows then KBUF is wrong regarding the lake enhanced snows on a NW wind. That trajectory would be almost impossible. The more likely wind direction would be NNE to northerly to the NW as the low pulls away. I feel like they never get this right.
  16. Thinksnow18
    So the in house models on WIVB (euro as he actually showed it) shows the heaviest accumulation over the NW part of WNY, exactly where the WSW isn't.
  17. Thinksnow18
    So it appears that every county in upstate New York has a winter storm watch with the exception of N. Erie and. Niagara county...seems about right for this year...
  18. Thinksnow18
    KBUF is hard headed...according to them we will be in the 40's with rain and a little backend snow which won't amount to much.
  19. Thinksnow18
    I'm going to hate myself for this but...its starting to look good for a majority of us...
  20. Thinksnow18
    Actually so far it never flips to even mixed precipitation on the 90 corridor north...IF that verifies, then yes, biggest run of our lives...
  21. Thinksnow18
    It's got potential!
  22. Thinksnow18
    Nws pulls from previous models...if the gfs was warm at 00z that's what they're using. The afternoon AFD will be quite different
  23. Thinksnow18
    Another forum had a post from a met, I believe who hides identity but the forum knows who he is, just showed an excellent depiction on the 6z euro control and if it's right it's lining up for a big event Thursday night Friday for us. 12z will be a huge run for that model imo.
  24. Thinksnow18
    I think the boundary today is pretty much the boundary for Thursday. 50 near state line and low to mid 30's Niagara frontier
  25. Thinksnow18
    I'd take 6 1/2 at kbuf which like you stated will actually be a bit higher due to better ratios later on Thursday night and Friday.
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