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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    1". What the hell happened???
  2. Thinksnow18
    8 to 14? That's warning criteria
  3. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I agree...thats a lot more moisture than I thought...if that's a regular shortwave I'm just a regular guy...
  4. Thinksnow18
    Just read the 11:25 AFD from KBUF...unless I missed it this morning, KBUF is bumping up snow totals tonight and is mentioning 1" to 2" snowfall rates for a few hours tonight with a once in a generation jet streak into the right rear quadrant producing max lift and perfect snow growth region...while they do not believe any area will receive warning amounts with this first system I can see now why the map paints 8" to 12" for buf and roc as they are expecting a few to several inches tomorrow night.
  5. Thinksnow18
    Normally I'd say KBUF being KBUF but they were pretty much spot on with the last event for accumulation totals...
  6. Thinksnow18
    They must be pretty impressed with tomorrow evening. Oddly no one else seems to be catching on...
  7. Thinksnow18
    50 miles is all that will take. It's not far off...and on the post below...an I missing something? Has anyone spoke of that much accumulation for buffalo?
  8. Thinksnow18
    Ask the euro...it is not on the same page, at all, as the GFS. In fact a 50 mile shift south would look just like a similar track to this event. And looking beyond that it has another southern storm lifting from the gulf. It tells the GFS to hold my beer.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I'm kinda surprised you guys are putting more stock in the lower end models to why QPF is lower. GFS still spits out almost 6" at KBUF and I'm not sure that's the second part later Thursday into Friday were ratios will be 15 or 20 to 1. I'm still thinking when is said and done between both parts a solid 7 to 10 inches from southern Erie north to Lake Ontario eastward.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Models still oddly consistent in high end advisory snows for 2/3rds of WNY...and only because Syrmax asked the taint will be from the western southern tier through the finger lakes and into central NY...
  11. Thinksnow18
    Most of WNY will cash in. The lake enhancement always goes further than forecast
  12. Thinksnow18
    Liking KBUF's forecast...if realized it wouldn't meet WSW criteria but we could see 6 to 10 over WNY over a 30 hour period...sounds like a fun 48 to 72 hours...
  13. Thinksnow18
    What he said...
  14. Thinksnow18
    Like it.
  15. Thinksnow18
    Those are all pretty solid hits
  16. Thinksnow18
    It is Wolfie, but more importantly it's pretty well modeled by all the big guns. I'd take back to back 8" plus events during a winter that rivals the same track record as finding a 1 inch needle in a pile of 1 1/2" needles
  17. Thinksnow18
    That's a nice hit on the 12z. This event really isn't far away time wise.
  18. Thinksnow18
    This has the makings of a decent to possibly warning criteria event.
  19. Thinksnow18
    As incredible as that level of AO is, I think it's equally incredible that we weren't torching really at any point during the time frame. Yes is was above average but it's been in the 60's and 70's in January in buffalo and I think we approached 60 once in the last month. Still an incredible number from normal none the less
  20. Thinksnow18
    So that's what a can of whoop ass feels like...son you just opened a whole case of whoop ass...
  21. Thinksnow18
    Really it's 72 hours. Which is almost just close enough to get a touch excited...almost...
  22. Thinksnow18
    BW you're pretty much the guy when it comes to historical facts about our winters...so I've got one for you...what is the longest timeframe the AO has been positive in WNY weather? This has to be close.
  23. Thinksnow18
    I see what you Wolfie, but in true NWS BUF fashion, they raised the stakes calling for good agreement for a decent snow event for Wed night and Thursday for buff and roch east and North...another nail biter...
  24. Thinksnow18
    Eyes on the prize boys...could be another advisory type event Thursday...GFS has trended to the King!
  25. Thinksnow18
    Wait Rochester airport? Certainly you meant 26" in that hour...
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