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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Oddly 12z does have more...
  2. Thinksnow18
    Can you show?
  3. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I'd pretty much be onto spring at that point...if the euro were correct that is.
  4. Thinksnow18
    The difference between the euro and the GFS is the Bermuda high...one has it one doesn't
  5. Thinksnow18
    Yeah not sure what it's seeing but I checked back at the 00z run in the 126 hour to 144 and it almost wants to split the high that's in eastern Canada into 2 and drop the second off the east coast in the mid Atlantic...it just looks funky...
  6. Thinksnow18
    That seems odd though due to a ridge that is now evident just off the us mid Atlantic that wasn't there earlier...
  7. Thinksnow18
    Euro coming in hot...more mixing than 00z suite
  8. Thinksnow18
    True but it appears to have a lot of consistency within all the major models...kinda reminds me of the November storm as to how consistent the track was about the same timeframe out.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Shoot that has 5 to 7 for buffalo and much of WNY...he better go to rehab...
  10. Thinksnow18
    Euro was a little weaker this morning already so seeing a weaker system will not surprise me...that output from the GFS was the most yet.
  11. Thinksnow18
    Two things in our favor for the weekend...1) not a strong system, but has get good lift and plenty of moisture...2) there's 2 very strong highs that Wolfie eluded to earlier that aren't racing off to the east. This plus the 50/50 low that moves through thursday slows the progression of the high from going off the east coast
  12. Thinksnow18
    It's just on the edge at hour 108 but it appears already the GFS will be all snow atm for Saturday
  13. Thinksnow18
    The 12z GFS has shifted south with the Thursday low taking almost right down the 90...another 50 miles south and were looking at a light 2 or 3 inch snowfall when yesterday there was nothing at all. And that is now in range at 72 hours.
  14. Thinksnow18
    Yeah I knew they were leaning towards all snow for the 18th wasn't sure about the 16th.
  15. Thinksnow18
    All snow for which system Wolfie?
  16. Thinksnow18
    Yes I agree their might be a few hour period of 8 to 1 but the majority looks 10 or dare I say 12 or 15 to 1.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Incredibly the NWS buf is already using categorical pops 5 days out...im liking what I'm seeing.
  18. Thinksnow18
    As of this very early juncture per the models there will be accumulations at that time already.
  19. Thinksnow18
    6z euro in as well, all snow and the entire upstate area betwern 6 to 10 inches. Nice to see both models with similar ideas.
  20. Thinksnow18
    6z is all snow throughout...at 10:1 it's 10" on the GFS output...then a lot of cold behind that system for some time.
  21. Thinksnow18
    Hell I'm talking the entire run...thats the last messy storm for the rest of the run.
  22. Thinksnow18
    I live in Williamsville off maple just west of transit...i swear every time we have even advisory winds that area you live in loses power. That's crazy.
  23. Thinksnow18
    Anyone see the 6z suite from the bi-polar GFS???
  24. Thinksnow18
    Luke are you in the Northtowns?
  25. Thinksnow18
    I'm with you. If we get a week or two of winter during actual winter I'll be stunned. At this point we are no different than the mid Atlantic is on a normal basis. I believe there is no turn around at this point to save this winter. I'm starting to think we have a chance for snow minimums
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