Thinksnow18

Yet somehow it's not reflecting in the ops runs...nor forecast temps.

12z GFS fresh out...shows the same transformation all the other models are...i believe you're going to see a very different write up around 4pm today from the NWS

Look even "in-house" models are showing this change over tomorrow afternoon to early evening...no one wants to bite but the message is clearly showing heavy rates of snow at that time for a good 4 to 6 hours.

That is a 3 to 6 Or 4 to 7 in WNY. That's a perfect deformation zone right over WNY. Plus most of that is at night away from diurnal effects

I've begun to notice a trend that I think we're all going to like. The indices have not looked good recently and we've managed to stay average to slightly below average. The mid and long range has wanted to warm us up it seems 7 to 10 days out for about the last 2 week's. That signal is gone again. It now appears December will finish colder than normal with several opportunities for snow via synoptic and mesoscale. The Euro mid range was showing a PV split towards the Christmas time frame which would only enhance our chances going forward. Bottom line is when the indices do begin to go in the direction we like and we get an inevitable beat down of the PV I think January and February could be special.

Yes they have come to a better consensus on a track. It appears it will be a track through Pennsylvania which may have the southern tier mix while the low goes by. All in all looking like a 3 to 5 for all...and the signal for LES looks good like BW pointed out.

However that's not true. There is plenty of cold air I'm just really wondering why it's not being tapped.

The NWS is not at all impressed with Saturday-Sunday especially at lower elevations..and they consider Monday night-Tues an open wave...huh.

That will change by tomorrow night.

You can't see it but it's actually circling the globe and re-intensifying back over lake superior...

But definitely came further NW with the precip shield...i believe yesterday's 12z was complete whiff SE...also it shows a shortwave (Alberta clipper) for Wednesday that would bring some lake snows NE of the lakes for a bit. Too early for anything worthy, however if this run is like the 00z there were several Clippers giving is chances.

Comes through here much weaker and as all snow...in fact I figure the GFS will come around on Monday night-Tuesday's little storm and a lot if what's being forecast looks to be white up until Christmas. Quite the change from about 1 week ago when it was cutter after cutter after cutter.

I think as we hit tomorrow this will become a little more clear.

If you look at the models the Canadian high pressure is over Minnesota, not too far to our west. Once the winds switch to NW later Saturday I can see a more powerful low being able to tap into that airmass and changing every thing to snow

If that were to hold serve then we would all mix for a period but snow accums could be significant with that or just SE of that line.

The 00z high res euro is still maintaining its southern trajectory, but did nudge ever so slightly NW from the 12z yesterday.

Lmao more than likely!

grew up on Wurlitzer drive. Graduated in 93

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

Yes unfortunately the models are not in our favor over the next 2 week's.

Where'd you grow up in NT?

We had a good hit this past January when we received 65" at the Airport and almost 30" during the one event...( yes KBUF was just under 2 feet but I'm sticking by my measurement) so it's possible and as BW mentioned earlier all models look good for some more LES next week.

No I'm stoked trust me. I wish this was stuck for 5 hours right where it's at.

Thats messed up

Niagara falls?