Thinksnow18

So how exactly do we fast forward this opportunity? Sadly I know this will shift and disappear about 8 times between now and range (Thanksgiving) but as BW and you both have discussed here this pattern looks primed to be potentially a big event.

So if BW or Westerly or any WNY like to paste the time frame on the 6z GFS from say hour 216 to the end of the run, I would be ok with that...

If you use Albany as a starting point and head east and south the temps definitely get milder. I agree Albany and Amherst are similar but it doesnt take too long to find average warmer temps away from that area

I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not.

The 2 big drivers in my unprofessional opinion are the PNA trending towards positive by 1st week of December and the EPO trending moderately negative at the same time. If the 2 happen similarly it may allow the cold air to dump out west them move east and become established.

I would agree with that...theres a pretty well known spotter, oddly also named Carol, that lives on the Chautauqua Ridge SW of buffalo and reports about 240" per year...i also doubt more than 120" are from synoptic.

Looks like the 6z GOOFUS wants to push the cold air back into the second week of December...

Looks like the EPS is following suit for the early December timeframe if a huge cold dump and pattern change.

I have to say that without a pig ridge in the Atlantic I'm kinda surprised how much this cuts on most models...i do like the ebd of the GFS run though...

Well we won't need to get it that cold as it would be closer to December and it "Appears" it would be growing colder with time

Thats a great look, and it's this week as well not 10 days away...definitely worth watching

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter

I don't see a wall to wall AN pattern shaping up for December...i think lots of ups and downs where we get chances for storms but it may have to time out right. I think there will be plenty of cold days but the average will be slightly AN

Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift.

No and that is a great look. Normal high at the end of November is 38 so it stands to reckon what falls could be snow.

True but with the second one, at least in that scenario on this run, the 528 line is very near by. Plus if it's dynamic enough that could be enough to produce its iwn cold air. Definitely something to watch.

The GFS is just as close...and it now appears enough cold air will be around that if it wraps up tight enough we could see a hybrid of lake enhancement and synoptic from Ontario

So is the HRRR on to something??? The lake effect/enhancement with the S/W looks impressive...will the dynamics hold here??? Thousand dollar question

Hey anyone see the radar returns just to our west over the thumb and western great lakes? Is that tomorrow's system already? Lots of blossoming returns and imbedded heavy snow with lake enhancement...if this arrives earlier say overnight we might catch lightning in a bottle NE of Lake Erie...

If it got cranking enough, which I doubt based on the current dynamics, it COULD overcome the marginal temps and become all snow while dynamically cooling the column.

Thank you Wolfie!!! Every time I try to attach something it says file too big.

Damn it im trying to copy, paste do whatever it takes but there are some real signs of a rather large PV disruption being forecast by the EPS and now the GEFS by Thanksgiving...also if you look at the forecasts for temps ten days out they have trended colder and the warm up appears gone...best temps I saw were next week's mind thru thursd and it was low 40's at best and then back to the 30's towards Thanksgiving...im really liking what im seeing here.

Not seeing it unfortunately!!! 40's???

So I'm beginning to do see a pattern or trend here I think we are going to love this winter. Guidance for the last few days showed a pretty decent warm up in the long range to almost mid to late November norms right up to Thanksgiving week. Well that idea has gone back a step and the models are having a tough time keeping it milder. This reminds me of the winter of '11-'12 when we would see cold signals in the long range but as we got within 7 days it backed off and we stayed milder...if this is the reverse of that there are plenty of signs that might suggest a ridge bridge building in Scandinavia over eventually to Greenland by Thanksgiving turning the NAO negative and the PV taking a bit of a beating. We COULD be setting ourselves up for a pretty great start to December if this has support in the next few days.

Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year.