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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Down to 45 in Williamsville…a bit early? Guidance was in the low 50’s until noon or so. I’m guessing due to the rate of rain puling down colder air?
  2. Yeah it appears the GFS is pretty amps with the second wave. IF right then it could be a good night.
  3. KBUF mentions, finally, IF the cold air moves in faster Then Niagara And Orleans counties could achieve warning criteria snows, which would in turn bump up the counties just to the south, more northern Erie and genesee counties to 4-6
  4. So northern Erie gets an ice storm, Niagara county gets warning level snow…makes sense
  5. That’s the first real mention of it but it looks to be increasingly likely…IF that was correct…look out…would be 2006 all over except it would be ice doing us in
  6. I’m beginning to like far western NY for an advisory event 4-6” Thursday night. Appears the frontal wave is slowing down a bit allowing the front to move through further and changing the rain to snow sooner.
  7. That’s the same as San Diego, phoenix ir even Miami. Having the “seasons” we enjoy bring variability and excitement. Living in one of those areas would be akin to living in Syracuse or some desolate, snowless area…
  8. NWS mentions this exact scenario in the early morning AFD. Even discuss potential winter headlines
  9. If you look at the 12 z it almost looks to develop a second wave as the front slows down. I wonder what 18z has in store
  10. If not mistaken, isn’t this an almost IDENTICAL situation as the last storm? We were supposed to torch wed-Thur that next week and as Monday hit we were looking at a snowstorm instead?…
  11. I’m hanging my hat on a more suppressed look. The HP in Canada look strong enough to at least flex the LP track in a favorable position. At least that’s my hope…
  12. Looks like our run of winter is coming to a crashing halt, at least if the GFS is to be used. Many warm weather lows the next 2 weeks putting us close to end of the month. It doesn’t go in our favor at that point.
  13. I feel last spring was decent but this statement is correct. The springs around here are highly unusable until mid the late May and at that point we try to cram in hundreds of activities into 4 months.
  14. Fact. The early January LES event was perfect proof. Airport 18.6”; 3 miles north in my neighborhood about 12” and 2 miles north 2-3” very defined sharp cutoff.
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