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Thinksnow18

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  1. Thinksnow18
    Yes temps soared quite a bit more today than I thought they would. I was under the impression the front would be close to moving through by now and a slow bleed of cold air would ensue. Now it appears the cold air won’t be far behind once the front moves through.
  2. Thinksnow18
    The key is how fast the front can swing through while a good chunk of the moisture is still to our SW. If the moisture is moving too quickly and the front hangs up then snow totals go down further. A bit concerned.
  3. Thinksnow18
    Is that the number of years left in the TugHill Curse? It’s actually shorter than I thought…
  4. Thinksnow18
    NWS Buffalo lowered the area amounts in all of WNY to 8-12”
  5. Thinksnow18
    NWS is pretty bullish IMO regarding the 12-18” for much of WNY.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Yeah this may be a long duration advisory event. I think the WSW is ultimately dropped to a WWA.
  7. Thinksnow18
    Yeah no complaint for sure. I think I’m just channeling my inner Dave and tempering expectations in the hopes of overachieving
  8. Thinksnow18
    Looks like the NWS has not moved off their accumulations at this time. If the trend holds we might see an 8-12 instead of 12-18”. My first thought is about a foot at KBUF for the event a little more towards Lake Ontario due to enhancement and more in the hills to the south. Might be looking at 4”per 12/hour period which may not meet the Winter Storm Warning criteria however the total amount will. Interesting 24 hours ahead.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Quick side note…KBUF is 35…EVERY other site near and around all WNY is below freezing…end rant…
  10. Thinksnow18
    I agree. I think the op GFS is going to shift a bit NW again as we get closer to the 18z or 0z runs.
  11. Thinksnow18
    I mean it’s not like I have a worship area like Serrano did in major league sacrificing live chickens in effort to o keep snow away from your location…at least not that I’m willing to admit…
  12. Thinksnow18
    Noticed Indianapolis and Detroit hoisted watches for this system but Cleveland and Erie have not. Detroit even put an 8-14” marker on theirs and I’m not sure what Indianapolis did but they said greater than 4” of snow and ice. Should have watches hoisted later afternoon.
  13. Thinksnow18
    One run. It’s an awful big shift from 0z yes but I do believe these model runs kinda cycle through the many tracks within the ensembles. If this trend is there at 12z then it’s uh oh…
  14. Thinksnow18
    BW’s thought was tomorrow afternoon. Seems plausible as it would only be 36 hours before the system would be upon us.
  15. Thinksnow18
    The king has spoken…
  16. Thinksnow18
    I’m thinking a warm February is as likely as TugHill winning the golden snowball
  17. Thinksnow18
    Feels like the last storm. It sniffed out the track long before the others did. Might not have been perfect at game time but it at least knew what was coming.
  18. Thinksnow18
    That’s a 36 yo 48 hours of constant snow per GFS
  19. Thinksnow18
    Pound town
  20. Thinksnow18
    I mean…
  21. Thinksnow18
    I mean if father Dyer from the exorcism is still around…
  22. Thinksnow18
    Have you looked at the LR? Plus all it’s going to take is a couple decent storms with nickle and dime events…I’m honestly wondering how we DON’T get to at least 100”
  23. Thinksnow18
    I’m beginning to have that “old fashioned” way it used to be winter feeling. We’ve had snow cover a good majority of January save for a few days. IF this next system stays mostly snow or ice for far WNY we may not lose that cover for some time. And it’s been years since we could say that.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Gfs run and some encouraging signs in the H5 region has me cautiously optimistic that February could be a repeat of January. And next weeks system looking pretty good right now for WNY
  25. Thinksnow18
    This is a huge change. I was watching 4 this morning and Mike showed the LR forecast and said tricky storm…I thought that’s gotta be a mistake it’s supposed to be an easy Rainer…nope… 6z gfs would be an ice storm and the euro a big hit snowstorm. That’s a big change and both models are on the same page with a shift of the LP south or just overhead.
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