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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    Toss.
  2. Thinksnow18
    It might be why the deformation zone is over WNY is that’s where the best lift will be and copious amounts of Atlantic moisture which could be sneaking in Atlantic air
  3. Thinksnow18
    At this point we might be able to start discussing this as an all time event for the Niagara frontier. Someone in that region will get 2 feet.
  4. Thinksnow18
    That map is horrible. It’s pretty much a normal “chalk” map as how systems would act with climo. Not certain what that poster is seeing but that remarkably less snowfall than any other model out there. Toss.
  5. Thinksnow18
    Yes a bit earlier than I thought yesterday but with the overnight and the 6z model runs really looking the same the NWS is starting to use the word likely instead of possible heavy snow.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Especially with the low over Maryland!
  7. Thinksnow18
    Todd was much more on top of it tonight at 7. He even mentioned not trying to scare anyone this far out but said it looks good for a widespread foot for WNY and the potential for an area within to double that. For Todd that’s as hyped as you’ll see. As for Mike he’s been really off his game lately. This am he had snow showers and light snow while ALL models were already showing this scenario. He was also off badly with the lake effect last week as well
  8. Thinksnow18
    Needless to say this storm has epic possibilities for WNY, but the whole run of the GFS is still incredible. It’s been mentioned today a few times but it goes to say this has potential for a very special 2 weeks.
  9. Thinksnow18
    Watches just issued for western North Carolina, western Virginia and West Virginia. The storm fir that area is 48-60 hours out, which means by tomorrow at this time we will also have watches hoisted.
  10. Thinksnow18
    I agree. I do think as far as timeframe we are over due in WNY for a storm like this.
  11. Thinksnow18
    Stamped and saved…
  12. Thinksnow18
    IF trends continue I’m guessing with the magnitude of this system watches hoisted tomorrow afternoon?
  13. Thinksnow18
    Death band over WNY
  14. Thinksnow18
    Because far too many, as I see it, go climo with alot of their forecast and are skeptical when anything else pops up
  15. Thinksnow18
    I’m pretty certain this is setting up to be a classic Miller B storm. Primary goes into western PA and gives way to a much stronger east coast/inland runner that sends copious amounts for most of Upstate. Why this will work as opposed to the damn good tracks in Nov and Dec is now we actually have a large pool of arctic air just to our north. I’m pretty confident (I know I’m setting myself up for the Dave repost) that this is what the models will hone in on
  16. Thinksnow18
    Last app runner I can remember was Jan ‘05. It’s the same day my wife and I found out we were going to have our first child. Great day all around.
  17. Thinksnow18
    Yeah that’s ALOT of land lows
  18. Thinksnow18
    actually you would get as Tommy lost twice to you! It was hilarious on the manning cast a few weeks back where Peyton and Eli had Tom on and Eli was ribbing him good.
  19. Thinksnow18
    I was at the Cleveland Monday night game about 10 years ago and the temp was the same. It didn’t mattter what I did as by the 4th it was just numbing.
  20. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. However, if the PV is that close one would think there’s bound to be multiple S/W imbedded that are not yet detected
  21. Thinksnow18
    Normally on these threads we don’t speak about temps as a topic of conversation…however that’s going to change right now. The Euro output for temps next Tuesday-Wednesday look to be absolutely brutal If correct. Lows would approach -10’ at LOWER ELEVATIONS and -20/-30 in the normally colder higher elevations and valleys! Damn!
  22. Thinksnow18
    It was the heaviest snow I’ve seen maybe in my lifetime. I’m north of the thruway by about 3 miles.
  23. Thinksnow18
    2.1” in roughly 40 minutes. That’s nuts.
  24. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. I am out picking up my son and if this isn’t 3-4”/hr snow I’m shocked. Absolutely ripping
  25. Thinksnow18
    The 12z has the first clipper over the weekend still diving into South Carolina, probably onto something, but as BW eluded to a few posts ago, Wednesday, Friday and the following Tuesday all look like opportunities for LE in the Metro area. I think the synoptic goes to shit but the lakes save us over the next 2 weeks. They’ll have to because they’re about to freeze quickly
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