Thinksnow18
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Everything posted by Thinksnow18
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7-16” for Williamsville
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So 10-20” range.
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Mike Is on an island by himself
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And look at that trajectory!
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While I NEVER feel comfortable about LES, seeing all 6 models pretty much lockstep right now does make me a bit more optimistic. And looking at the snowfall forecast map from the NWS the biggest difference is the stripes of snow north of Buffalo have widened by a few miles. The 8-12” now solidly gets near the 990 and the 4-8 gets all the way to Tonawanda by the 290. This is different from yesterday when those areas were more in the 2-4 category, and the 8-12” area was a cutoff right near my location.
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Most of those included all of metro Buffalo north-side and south side. Looks good ATM
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Too low for the airport. Foot at KBUF 8” in Williamsville 3-6 for west Amherst/Snyder and I sgeee with the rest
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That was a classic show.
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That map makes perfect sense of a 240-250 flow
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My guess is that’s the model Mike is using. That’s an almost carbon copy if his map.
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That’s my thought because he has warning snowfall in Chautauqua county. His heaviest is Boston hills. I made fun of him last year for this and out of the three Mets yesterday (Don, Todd and himself) he was the only one this south. Don even stated that he and Todd discussed this and after reading BW and his conversation with Tom Niziol I feel all three of them collaborated.
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And did you notice what Aaron did? Even though the color shades show a further south solution, he shifted his totals north of the coloring…he’s not just blindly following bad guidance.
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Yep I agree with these two…mike was out on a raft in the pacific…
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Expecting between 6-10” is my guess as I’m probably just a mile or two north of the heaviest snows for this one. West Seneca, Cheektowaga, Lancaster, South Buffalo and Depew Jackpot this one IMO.
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I just watched WIVB…Mike Cejka is about 25 miles south of the NWS with his Placement of the band and snow accumulation.
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I’m not down on it! It’s a share the wealth type of event. I’d take 8-9” over nothing any day.
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Bottom 3 are very similar in location and amounts. That seems the logical outcome. HRRR is still drunk from the holidays…
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I thought Tom Niziol was using the NAM? In his estimation it kinda gets everyone from the Niagara/Erie Co border to Hamburg?
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My question is all the verbiage states warning criteria snows in all 4 zones in the WSW…so why not raise it to a warning and smooth out details as it takes shape in later runs?
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Huge event? No. A foot? I’m not going to throw that away
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The bullseye is shrinking but the area actually widened
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When have you EVER looked to the ICON fir Lake Effect?!?!?!
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Don just said he thinks they’ll call it in the next half hour.
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DP is on WIVB…the right met to have in right now
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I also just learned that 240 is more north Buffalo as 250 is Cheektowaga airport…that means the area from roughly the 990 south to Hamburg or just north slightly is fair game in a 240-250 vector
