I’m not. But when the NWS puts it in the HWO and local stations are bringing it up already, I’d say that’s a good signal…I also like the post from LEK right above me with optimism as well…
OTG obs about 4 minutes ago Uber dad to Tim Hortons, white rain, occasional flake, 35 ATM…sky is taking in that white look when it’s snowing out…should be changing over within an hours time.
BW I gotta say seeing Tom Niziol discuss the potential for LEA 5 days out does make my ears perk up. Seeing the GFS being so consistent is absolutely exciting at this point. As you stated LES is a bit easier to spot in a week or less time. This COULD turn a lot of this winter around quickly.
I agree. Also it is snowing in Hamilton Ontario already. Environment Canada is calling for up to 1 to 2 Cm per hour at times over night. 5-10cm (roughly 2-5”) accumulation but higher amounts in enhanced areas.
I think the NWS is putting too much weight in icing occurring. Every one of these models is 4+” of accumulation through the 90 corridor north. One of two things is happening, IMHO is that the NWS is afraid to buy in to the lake enhancement or the system itself…either way looking upstream I’m not seeing much in the way of icing or mixing.