Thinksnow18

I guess I’m not shocked the NWS is going so low, but now that the higher res NAM family has shifted south, who are they hanging their hat in? Oh and the rest of the 12z looks amazing throughout

The NWS is, shocker, going with the warmest solution possible, the NAM!

First it was the grim reaper of winter TugHill Matt gracing us with his presence, now the flame thrower known as Blue Moon kicks the door down…who pissed off the heavens?!?!?!

That’s right I forgot you’re down there…I think there’s a good likelihood of a little more than that for you, but I understand your consternation.

Agree. What would the destruction need to be for that to verify?

All snow thruway north 18z

I’m curious why they’re going higher? A NE wind does not preclude warmer air

Looks hood for the Niagara Frontier east to Rochester…Syracuse looks a bit dicier

I have never been so close to a line like that. We picked up about 6” that night in Williamsville and just 40 miles east it was rain. Very strange storm track for sure

I’m sticking with the 90 north special. We’re 72 hours out and I’m seeing some pretty good run to run consistency. This is small potatoes but honestly, or hopefully, a pattern trend starts and we start getting into pattern recognition in our favor.

Overnight and AM runs on GFS and Euro were a good step in the right direction. The 6z does change that Xmas system to a half grinch/gift but overall cold is more dominant on both runs.

Yes it makes sense…it’s showing what is becoming painfully obvious, our winters are getting shorter and now there’s good proof.

Fixed it…

I was just thinking about this. I’m shocked we’re ahead of this time last year. However, things aren’t looking good for too much more snowfall this month, at least in Buffalo.

Yep!!! 2023…

Today that was noticeable to me. While driving, I couldn’t help but think this is our new norm. Instead of struggling get up to freezing, we’re struggling to REACH freezing! All around I see brown and no snow, no proof of the 6 or so inches we’ve received to this point. In my opinion we’ve become an extension of the mid Atlantic and their temperature averages. It won’t show up in the 30 year average but it would in the last 10 years.

One thing to notice with the ensembles is the lack of a Bermuda high. That in itself is a victory

I do feel this is the ultimate gradient system where the 90 north stays mostly snow and the PA line is rain with a mix in between. Either way it’s not a juiced system so at best it’s a few inches where it stays snow.

Noticing a lot of different ideas from all sorts of posters all over the boards…some good posters on NE forum go into good, analytical discussions regarding the next 10-14 days after this work week. Many believe the Iceland/Greenland block development which has begin to take shape will impact our weather through the new year with more frequent cold air and less warming, the exact opposite that has taken place. Even our NWS in Buffalo looks optimistic about more wintery weather after Thursday. Things are looking better than they have in some time

Looks like the 12z euro also has the event for Saturday but a little less impactful. What is also has us wall to wall cold from that system to the end of its run, same as the GFS…maybe a trend?

Crap…the GFS just gave us not one, not two but 3 snow events the next 3 systems…well that’s too good to be true…toss..:

It’s baaacck!!! All locations surrounding KBUF are 6 to 7 degrees colder this morning! KBUF is at 36 and all surrounding sites are in the upper 20’s…the one constant? Full sun all day yesterday…

For all my Buffalo peeps the legendary Don Paul is on WIVB the next couple days snd he have a sneak peek at what the longer range models are showing for the Xmas timeframe and beyond…in his words the low chance of a white Xmas is a little better with the upcoming changes, but he really feels it could get pretty downright cold towards the new year. If you know him like many of us do, he’s not a hype man. This is great news

I wouldn’t t be surprised to see the storm back by later today or tomorrow runs.

Eric Webb another well known Met was copied to the NE forum earlier as the EPS is beginning to show a -NAO the week of Xmas. I wouldn’t look into the op models all that much right now as they’re wildly all over the map, literally. Give it about 3 days and some things for the weekend will start to become clearer