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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    The low end map doesn’t match the high end map. The higher end has the proper enhancement on a NE wind…the expected or low end has a NW wind…which model are they riding?
  2. Thinksnow18
    NWS g be believes in zero of these models.
  3. Thinksnow18
    However that track is perfect for LES off Erie for Buffalo.
  4. Thinksnow18
    Just going to post…damn Wolfie you’re quick!!! Still about 3-5”Niagara Frontier…I’m starting to think this is getting narrowed or locked in.
  5. Thinksnow18
    I think panel 10 is the most likely and 20 would be best outcome for all.
  6. Thinksnow18
    Good catch.
  7. Thinksnow18
    I think we’re all too paranoid to use the models showing it and always going to the one that caves.
  8. Thinksnow18
    Could be
  9. Thinksnow18
    Still has that 3-5” I’m thinking. More as you go towards Lake Ontario.
  10. Thinksnow18
    Unless you can get warm air on NNE winds were fine…I’ve always thought this was a Buffalo NE to Rochester special. A lot to iron out still.
  11. Thinksnow18
    I really think Wednesday Thursday could be a time to watch
  12. Thinksnow18
    I like how the NWS is still in disbelief of higher accumulation. Not one model shows that low but they’re staying staunch. Odd. Just like the temps taken on warm sunny days…
  13. Thinksnow18
    Agreed. That would give much of the CWA a hit.
  14. Thinksnow18
    I’m surprised there isn’t more chatter this am. No it’s not a blockbuster by any means but it could end up being a decent synoptic event. I also believe that there will be quite a bit of lake enhancement off Ontario as during the height of the event (Saturday night-Sunday Am) the winds will be NNE. This could bump totals up an inch or two just as it’s forecast for Chicago.
  15. Thinksnow18
    In a blend of the GFS, Euro and CMC the avg for KBUF would be 3-5” for later tomorrow night into Sunday. With no real warmup after that and (at least on the GFS BuffWeather) the threat of SW lake effect Wednesday night-Thursday it may look a bit more winter like around.
  16. Thinksnow18
    That is every model now on noard
  17. Thinksnow18
    That is the inherent problem with our forum. We’re the only forum that is affected by so many different influences. Cutters, EC bombs, clippers, wind direction for Lake effect…not everyone is in on it.
  18. Thinksnow18
    We snow
  19. Thinksnow18
    Now Euro is on its own…
  20. Thinksnow18
    That’s 3 of 4…
  21. Thinksnow18
    It’s a good pattern we can score in this
  22. Thinksnow18
    12z held serve. I kinda think that with this system not being wrapped up as tightly as it originally was modeled that an open wave would give way to the Canadian high just to the north…it’s why I still believe the 90 north and northeast has the best chance for a few inches out of this system. I also noticed the middle “warmup “ next week was very minimal on the GFS. More if a clipper type system with a little WAA ahead of it.
  23. Thinksnow18
    We have two huge dogs, it’s better if I just plant grass seed in the house from this point forward…
  24. Thinksnow18
    Guys were jumping in the pit of misery way too fast…in a 4 day period, one day of 10+ degree departures and 3 right at normal or even a degree or two below would give us AN temps. The system on the models is a 1 1/2 day “warm up” and back to cold. As Aaron Rodgers once said…R.E.L.A.X.
  25. Thinksnow18
    NAM also had WNY receiving 6” on the last system…toss…
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