Thinksnow18

No you’re more right than wrong. There will be a pattern shift and I believe theres still a lot of confusion amongst how it all plays out

4 would be most of the forum

I s add Leo hate to say it but the Niagara frontier is definitely in the best position for this event, as of now, of course that could change. The 18z did shift a bit SE from the 12z.

I mean is 38 warm? It’s temporary too but if you read the AFD they make it appear like it’s going to last

They’re riding the GFS only…Euro has no warm up

We’re within 84 hours now…this was a big development IMO…this will most likely be the track of this system, within a spectrum. I hate to say it this way but the further NW you are (looking at the Niagara Frontier) the better the chance for some moderate accumulation.

This is straight weather porn. EURO has no warmup at all next week…and has as many systems as the GFS…COULD we FINALLY be getting somewhere???

I’m thinking 60”-70” at KBUF at best

Looks a lot like the 12z GEFS

Radar looks juiced for a weak system…

Bingo. I really believe the NWS is under doing this event

I noticed this am on WIVB and their backup meteorologist Mike Doyle show the snowfall forecast for tonight as dusting to an inch Buffalo north. This may very well be correct but 2 things jumped out at me, first was the actual model run itself and how much heavy snow was all over WNY and he actually mentions this, the second thing is in the color coding over Southern Ontario shows what would appear to be significantly more accumulation than right over the river into WNY… now seeing the ICON and the GFS and I’m starting to wonder a bit.

Did you see what it did for the weekend system???

I’m interested as to why the trajectory of the accumulation to the west over lower Michigan doesn’t translate east…notice the hole over WNY? That seems odd

Agreed and you beat me to this point

I agree with this. Now the GFS is Uber cold with not one but 2 huge at it highs at the end of the run. I do believe the models are struggling big time and will take days to sort out.

I’m just looking at today locally…the Mets were all wrong today. It was supposed to be above freezing by thus time per all the stations…still below here in Williamsville. I’m also watching the report right now and the in house models show all snow tomorrow and a hood hit of it…hey Todd STILL wants to state it’ll be sat we than it’s bring depicting…here’s my thought…I’m thinking these models are not picking up the finite parts of these systems.

Makes me wonder where the CPC is getting the below Average Anomalies from…

Like joe Namath with Suzy Kolber on Monday night football a number of years ago

We had all of about 45 minutes of “winter “ this morning and now has flipped to freezing rain/sleet…where else would you rather be than right here right now!!!

Yeah I don’t think this pattern is going to budge. We may see a week or two of winter this season but that’s about it. One thing you can count on besides death and taxes is the inevitable delay of cold air on the models 10 days out.

Yeah that’s about the extent of it…or becoming a ghost hunter or Bigfoot hunter…at least with those there’s always the thrill of the chase…BTW the 12z doubled down and ALL systems are warm cutters.

As this winter proceeds I’m starting to ask myself is there any other hobby I could take up?

Mix of snow and sleet in Cheektowaga

Snowing moderately in Williamsville…will result in coating #15678 of the season