Thinksnow18

Good for you Dev! You suffered enough up in the northtowns like I am currently (although it’s not in the radar but it is snowing moderately from time to time) to deserve a nice surprise. Hope you get a foot

And if you look northeast of the airport towards Clarence the moderate snow is that far north

Snowing as far north as Sheridan dr by Main Street Clarence. Read the AFD…northern Chautauqua-southern Erie…is their forecast…ummmm…

I miss the snow that came with it…

Snowing in Hamburg at the newly built Amazon warehouse on Bayview…seems to me the LES is further north than modeled…

So that’s winter…

Not so sure of that. There’s quite a pinwheel of snow showers over S. Ontario headlong ESE. Might make it into Niagara Frontier by 630 or 7.

Yes it does appear more up and down, not a straight torch for the next ten days.

Gotta say I’m pleasantly surprised this morning with the end of the runs from the GFS 00z and 06z…both strongly show a switch to what appears colder air as we head towards Christmas week. In fact, and yes I get it’s a shit ton of hours out, but you see a low near the desert SW that begins to head northeast. This track is more typical of what we would see in a Nina and one that can usually give our CWA a good snowstorm. It also doesn’t hurt the MJO is rounding the bend towards 7-8by that time so this is definitely something to watch

High wind watch dropped to a wind advisory for late tonight and tomorrow

I’m actually surprised the NWS hasn’t already made it a wind advisory only. And the 12z put the nail in the coffin for the Wednesday system.

I mean he is 73 so maybe a bit of a misspeak but the gist is it’s too damn hot

Trust me Dave my wife, myself and the kids just traversed the east driving to Florida over Thanksgiving. Traffic sucked after N. Carolina, there’s a litter of broken down vehicles all over S.C., GA, and Florida. There are also a ton of tourists and transplants from all over the country and other neighboring countrys that make it more of a melting pot than anything. It doesn’t feel homey at all. Neighborhoods in Florida are built in months and houses aren’t built to suit they’re just cookie cutter and sold as is. Their education system is one of the worst in the country and healthcare not far behind. No state tax a plus but speaking to my Moms husband (nice guy) he stated they had 66 days of 89 degrees or higher between July and August. Keep it

Well I for one would NOT care for an influx of population. One of the the appeals to me is MOST of our population is Buffalo born and bred or ties to the region. IF an influx of people from other parts of the country were to take place you can guarantee three things…housing prices will increase substantially overtime as new developments would need to be built to keep up with a booming population and therefore increasing prices on homes…the infrastructure would begin to take a beating and our paltry (in comparison) traffic “jams” would actually become a major issue…there is quite a bit of seasonal tourism here that would go away (skiing, possibly fishing and hunting as more land becomes unavailable) and if you want to press a 4th reason taxes would also increase to cover the levies on increase population and infrastructure rebuilding. Fir those reasons I hope WNY stays just like it is. Every part of this country has issues that make it undesirable and if taxes are ours I’m ok with that.

How has it gotten this bad? We have become the mid-Atlantic with storm tracks and cold air. Our cold is transient, and the storm track now seems to keep our CWA on the warmer side of most systems. We no longer have past climo to look at as the new era of climo has taken over. We will see snow this year, but I’m no longer expecting weeks of winter, more like a few days every couple weeks surrounded by milder air and rain. The new norm.

Jesus that would have us as highs in the 20’s and LES…

Yeah the Wednesday storm is now a Houdini and has all but disappeared only to be replaced with whatever that is…Billikens and billions spent in the satellites, software and algorithms and these models have managed to get worse by the year.

Oddly we feel the same way about the Tennessee valley receiving snow…

Agreed but we were supposed to have a front loaded winter and a warmer second half…I don’t foretell an entire winter burner as most patterns break down after 4 to 6 weeks. Our time will come…I think…

Which in turn COULD benefit upstate just in time for the Christmas holiday…I’d take a warmer first half for a bomb second half. Some of KBUF’s largest events have happened at Christmas or the following week…holding out hope

At least we have memories…

12z trending towards the 00z Euro…

They’re really hugging the GFS on this one.

It appears the GFS is on to the Wednesday system as more robust than the Euro…it was also the first of the 2 models to have this system a cutter…is the GFS becoming more reliable?

Just quickly looked at the 12z GFS it has a bit more of a response behind the front Monday but still short lived, Wednesday is looking more impressive for 3 runs now and could be a gradient storm. It keeps the low in SW PA but has enough warm air over riding the low to keep rain at the PA line and snow north of the southern tier. In the past this setup has led to decent storm totals and if this holds could be our first widespread event