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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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Colder air aloft will also move in tonight, with 850mb
temperatures dropping to about -17c by daybreak Thursday. By
late evening it should be cold enough for a lake response.
This will be best defined off Lake Ontario when a secondary
front drops south across the lake late tonight. Expect a band
to develop southeast of Lake Ontario tonight as this front
sweeps up any available moisture. This band will quickly push
south of the lake by daybreak, producing a quick burst of snow
with a quick inch or two possible. After this there will not be
much moisture available Thursday, with light disorganized lake
snows likely southeast of Lake Ontario during the day. Expecting
a total of 2-4 inches from Wayne to Oswego counties tonight and
Thursday. Some light snow showers possible south of Lake
Ontario from Niagara to Monroe counties with accumulation mainly
an inch or less.

 

 

A cold front will track across the region Sunday as a clipper system
moves north of New England. Northwest flow behind the front and
850mb temperatures falling to near -14C will yield another round of
lake effect snow east/southeast of the Lakes into Monday. This round
will be brief as surface high pressure tracks across the central
Appalachians.

Both the 12z GFS and 12z EC have come to a better agreement that an
area of low pressure will track near, if not across the region
Monday night into Tuesday. Widespread snow is possible with lake
enhancement behind it. There is still question if a southern stream
feature may phase with the northern stream as they approach the east
coast.

Temperatures will remain below normal during the period.
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I just returned from a jog. It feels fantastic outside; 40 degrees is ideal running weather.

The wind's starting to pick up. I could sense it getting colder near the end of my run. Bottom's going to fall out tonight with a low in the mid 10s.

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Good ol' Sizzlecuse. The temp just keeps pumping up and up. Every time I think it's hit its max temp, it goes up another degree. 

The one thing this city CAN count on to overperform is warmth. I knew when I saw 38 degrees for the high that we would work towards almost the mid 40s. Always 5 degrees warmer.

It got up to 43 in Oswego compared to the 37 we expected yesterday.

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Things def will be pick up in terms of precip events once we get close to february as the whole pattern shifts back towards the more canonical nina look. Can see the shift in the pacific start in about 7 days or so. This should allow for a -pna development and more se ridging to form. How strong the pna gets will determine if we benefit or not. The SPV looks to go on roids heading into February and that can also argue against cold air coming south of it couples with troposphere.  Main MJO forcing still looks conducive for cold through end of month then it becomes a bit iffier if we see propagation into western IO or not. 

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Thanks, Wolfie. You can see, as a result, they both keep the banding over Lake Ontario/your location while bringing the dry slot (and rain...see the little specks of green around the glorious Sizzlecuse on the GFS...lol). It's like the never-ending new norm.

A day of cold...a bit of lake effect...24 hours later a warm "clipper" that dirties and melts the snow as temps hit 40s.

I know many snowmobilers who have just given up riding and selling their sleds because they say it's not worth it with how often conditions are trashed.

Next week looks to offer some better chances...but I have also said that before during this winter as well. Lol

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The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much.

As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... :)

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7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Canadian and Ukie offer several shots throughout the period. I was surprised to see the Ukie picking up on chances for decent lake snows early next week. It doesn't often show lake snows much.

As far as tonight, I am a bit skeptical of getting much lake effect here. Just doesn't look like much to work with. I would love to be pleasantly surprised upon waking up though... :)

You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze...

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Woke up this morning and forgot we were scheduled to get a dusting to an inch or two thanks to the storm moving by south of us.

Left my house in Middletown and it was coming down light but as I got closer to my warehouse in Florida it was really coming down nicely. Can't ask for much more on a weekday down here with no storms right now. 32-34f observed and so far a dusting in 45 minutes. Looks nice and feels good that's for sure. f16e7f9e63bdff1e8f222b96aaf85229.jpg00217a6fef405336c8729f568bfb1a16.jpgea52cb5c8b05d208b36d72114df9380c.jpg

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

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16 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

You were right to be skeptical. Other than the burst of SN we just had, not much overnight...now we freeze...

Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch.

I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." 

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12 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lots of snow up in the high peaks 

228B93A3-BF9B-43AF-8C37-B8309767B4C5.jpeg

Nice!  I know exactly where that sign is.  My wife and I did that as a summer hike a couple of years ago.  Honestly can't imagine being out there on a deep winter day.

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21 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yup, had a dusting last night and this nice burst of snow this morning. Maaaaybe we'll squeak out an inch.

I have become very leery of much snow when hearing or reading "NW winds." 

No inch here. Another "heavy dusting", about 1/4"...#352 for the season.  This is the business we've chosen. :lmao:

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15 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That arctic front should be pretty strong on Sunday. I'd expect a pretty strong Lake enhanced band to drift from north to south. Even low res GFS is showing it, something to watch.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_neus_84.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

I’m calling you the great Kreskin of snow predictions. The NWS text this am repeats exactly what you stated regarding the “sneaky” LES opportunity for Saturday night Sunday morning for Buffalo. 

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33 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Nice!  I know exactly where that sign is.  My wife and I did that as a summer hike a couple of years ago.  Honestly can't imagine being out there on a deep winter day.

Its a different world up there in the winter. I've done 6 winter high peaks so far, hoping to do another 1-2 this year. 

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