Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,133
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SCseminole
    Newest Member
    SCseminole
    Joined

Wednesday 12/8 Possible Snow/Ice/Rain? Discussion


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast.

On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Does anyone think this will actually accumulate very good with light intensity and a relatively marginal airmass? I certainly don't expect much if any accumulation in my new urban setting. Think it's a lot of white rain for folks along the immediate coast.

On a side note, good to hear that Jerry is doing better and nothing serious. From one NJ transplant to another, here's to good health!

Might be tough right near water or in an urban heat island with light rates, but the airmass itself isn't exactly marginal. 925 temps are like -5C.....so prob upper 20s interior to near freezing on coast...maybe mid 30s right on the water and that's where most of the accumulation issues might happen in light rates.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Might be tough right near water or in an urban heat island with light rates, but the airmass itself isn't exactly marginal. 925 temps are like -5C.....so prob upper 20s interior to near freezing on coast...maybe mid 30s right on the water and that's where most of the accumulation issues might happen in light rates.

Probably should of specified a marginal airmass within a couple miles of the coast. Yeah, anywhere west of Boston should be good temp wise in the upper 20's. As for the coast, there's no chance of good accumulation when temps are near freezing and the precip is light

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

Is what I've circled the baroclinic zone? First off, what is a baroclinic zone and second, how would it be prevented from escaping east?

Screenshot_20211206-171451_Chrome.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What i keep in the back of my mind is keeping an eye to see if it starts to consolidate more going forward and starts to lose more of the IVT look that it has had in previous runs especially yesterday.

Almost pure deformation at H92 now. ;)

image.png

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was a uniquely maddening season. I have always said, play that year out 99 more times, and we'd do better each and every time.

A winter in which BWI has 7" more snow than CAR probably has a return interval similar to 1938 and the Octobomb.

If we get more than an inch on Wednesday, I'll call it a win.  (Unless S.Maine is getting a foot.)

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

First call. 

Lots of positives here for sure! Could certainly trend in either direction but definitely loving the signals which are trending in a favorable direction 1148833077_1stcallmap.png.f75f0f8e3ec756f662d9cbbdc7b3291f.png

You know it's bad when GON jacks.

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Surprised some of the queens in here didn't point out how much better it was for SE MA than 12z. :lol:

Only ones who might live there would point that out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Keeps sharpening up the trough....but you still need it to capture the system without letting the baroclinic zone escape east....and it's still escaping east. You can see how it tries to expand the precip shield back west late in the game though compared to 12z.

That s the rub.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is what I've circled the baroclinic zone? First off, what is a baroclinic zone and second, how would it be prevented from escaping east?

Screenshot_20211206-171451_Chrome.jpg

Yes. That is the baroclinic zone. It’s just the area of thermal gradient where you get all the forcing and rapid development of the low. The way to not have it escape east is to weaken any front running shortwaves or energy and have the backside energy become dominant. This is kind of the issue on the current threat. We don’t have a really defined area of energy (usually seen as vorticity on the 500mb maps)....instead we have some weak impulses embedded in the trough. We really want the vorticity more defined near the base of the trough....that will naturally tend to happen of the trough becomes sharper so that is why we are rooting for that look. 

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m glad that we didn’t lose this. At least not completely, and that trends look good.

The TV dude even said it, but a few of us are right in what is probably a pretty favorable spot especially in the hills above a couple hundred feet.

now I work right on the south coast, but live in Willimantic. And the difference between temps and snow averages between the two locations is enough that I’m willing to work outdoors in the winter on the coast, but probably would not do it in interior “upstate” CT. It’s nearly always 2-4 degrees cooler where I live, and We average 3 times as much snow as locations on the water, and we aren’t even in a relatively favorable spot compared to a few towns nearby.

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...