Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,171
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
 Share

Recommended Posts

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest GFSX for the end of the month-

1641254400-vJrJG4112Yo.png

Gradient pattern. Would not be surprising if the pattern evolves to that as it wouldn’t take major events like an SSW, etc. Gradient patterns can work but would favor points to our north. Good news is that Canada has plenty of cold air to work with.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Check the 3rd graphic in this tweet: composite 500mb height pattern for December MJO phase 7 in Nina’s. Quite a few similarities to the GEFS plot that @CAPEposted with -EPO, start of NAO ridging and gradient pattern over us.

 

Certainly not a bad look if you want precip chances, especially any prospects of winter weather. Looks like the Eastern CONUS will be under some formidable ridging around mid-month with undulations in the upper flow every 5-7 days or so prior. After that, the gradient pattern starts to develop with the extension of the SE Ridge along the Gulf coast up to Mid Atlantic lat. This will probably be a period to watch as any waves passing underneath can deliver some snowfall and/or wintry precip. This is defined pattern that's not capable for KU's, but this is a textbook way to score a few minor to even moderate events, if things break right. 

Source region of cold is building into something fairly formidable for later in the winter as Siberia over to NW Canada and Alaska have been extremely cold with more snow/ice build up further southeast into Manitoba expected next few weeks. The cards are shuffling, but can the area get dealt pocket pair or 2/7 off?.... We shall see!

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@MillvilleWx if we can’t get a good, old-fashioned cold shot with the source region that frigid, by mid January at the latest, then it might be time to quit winter in the Mid-Atlantic. I’m not even talking anything that dramatic. Like highs near freezing and lows in the low-mid 10s without snowcover and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Shouldn’t be as hard as it’s been for the last 2-3 years!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GEFS extended control from last night.   I will take the Royal Flush….

DDE95B0A-7A9A-4693-9B63-F0C6BD5D2707.png

Good morning W W. Thank you, I never knew such an extended snow projection existed. ‘Ignorance is bliss’ and I keep whistling tunes from the 50’s musical A Most Happy Fella. I do, of course, realize that the statistical probability of verification is somewhat akin to getting the Royal Flush you mentioned. As always …

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest take from Mount Holly for next week..

Tuesday night-Wednesday night... A fast moving frontal wave is forecast to pass near the mid-Atlantic during this period, bringing a precipitation threat. Model agreement significantly worsened regarding this system on the 0z suite. The latest EC and UKMET runs are now so de-amplified with this wave that they show precipitation staying entirely south of the region. The GFS on the other hand remains much further north, with the GEM in between. The consensus of this trend is a colder and lower amplitude system overall. The environment it will be moving into will be quite dry and capable of significant wet bulbing effects. So am inclined to trend the forecast colder, though also concerned PoPs may be too high given the latest EC. This system does have potential to bring measurable snow and/or mixed precipitation to portions of the area, but given the poor model agreement, confidence is not high regarding this.

 

Colder trend would allow for many to see at least a brief period of frozen, but if it ends up weak/flat/suppressed, there might not even be much precip.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@MillvilleWx if we can’t get a good, old-fashioned cold shot with the source region that frigid, by mid January at the latest, then it might be time to quit winter in the Mid-Atlantic. I’m not even talking anything that dramatic. Like highs near freezing and lows in the low-mid 10s without snowcover and perfect radiational cooling conditions. Shouldn’t be as hard as it’s been for the last 2-3 years!!

I’d like to see some evidence the nearly constant pacific onslaught of the last several years was only a temporary cyclical thing because I can certainly think of some reasons it could be a product of changes related to “you know what” like the enhanced tightened gradient in the north pac due to the expanding Hadley cell. That, imo, has been problem numero uno in getting any real sustained cold here. Seeing signs that isn’t permanent would be welcome. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d like to see some evidence the nearly constant pacific onslaught of the last several years was only a temporary cyclical thing because I can certainly think of some reasons it could be a product of changes related to “you know what” like the enhanced tightened gradient in the north pac due to the expanding Hadley cell. That, imo, has been problem numero uno in getting any real sustained cold here. Seeing signs that isn’t permanent would be welcome. 

I'm wondering about the fact that the MJO now just seems to want cycle around the MC and seems almost physically prevented from going through phases 8, 1, 2.  Or are they two sides of the same coin?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • mappy unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...