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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My bad. I’ll try to do better. I know it’s been a bad week for you after Ji told you that you live in the ocean :lol:

I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. :yikes:

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43 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I'd probably do better if I did. All those fish storms with cold fronts blasting off the coast in mid winter. I'm sure the average annual snowfall is higher a couple hundred miles east. :yikes:

At least you wouldn't have to worry about soil temps.

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Stolen from elsewhere…

This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. 
 

C9E9C95B-36CF-4126-8647-023A194D3416.png.0336e964e64fa08efba3a8d5188dd028.png

Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. 

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Was mentioning this a couple of days ago. I am liking that mid December period for a chance. Not just the MJO but the AO and NAO as well. Obviously not prime climo for us. Even me out here. But we have a chance. 

Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good(bad) 2 weeks imo.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Probably more like the last few days of the month into early Jan, if everything goes well. Once that big, flattish PAC ridge, western US trough, SE ridge pattern sets up shop, it usually isn't transient in a Nina. Going to be a good 2 weeks imo.

We are going to get pretty amped into 7. I will be shocked if we dont make it to 8 in late Dec early Jan at this point. If we can keep some blocking north of us and keep the AO at least neutral I will take my chances. 

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All snow talk aside the 18z gfs verbatim would make for a fun Sunday next weekend for many. Quite the wind event. Of course, it's a model run for 8 days out so it won't go down exactly like that. (I know. Good job Sherlock Holmes. :rolleyes:) But it just shows that we are going to be in an active pattern for a bit.

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