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December 2021 Medium/Long Range Discussion Thread


North Balti Zen
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Stolen from elsewhere…

This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. 
 

C9E9C95B-36CF-4126-8647-023A194D3416.png.0336e964e64fa08efba3a8d5188dd028.png

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Stolen from elsewhere…

This would be a substantial improvement with a good MJO pass toward and past the dateline and actually subsidence developing over the maritime continent by mid-late month. If this comes to pass, I’d expect our 500mb charts to show some improvement after mid month. 
 

C9E9C95B-36CF-4126-8647-023A194D3416.png.0336e964e64fa08efba3a8d5188dd028.png

I’m quite pleased with the timing of the way everything is progressing. Getting our best pattern mid winter is always preferable.  And I do fully expect the longwave pattern to evolve to a decent if not good one eventually. But a couple of the best nina analogs to right now, while the h5 pattern did improve significantly it was mostly wasted. I guess that’s somewhat expected in a Nina. When it’s cold it’s dry. So it’s likely still going to be a slog but I’ll take my chances getting our best looks between Xmas and March v now. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m quite pleased with the timing of the way everything is progressing. Getting out best pattern mid winter is always preferable.  And I do fully expect the longwave pattern to evolve to a decent if not good one eventually. But a couple of the best nina analogs to right now, while the h5 pattern did improve significantly it was mostly washed. I guess that’s somewhat expected in a Nina. When it’s cold it’s dry. So it’s likely still going to be a slog but I’ll take my chances getting out best looks between Xmas and March v now. 

I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it. 

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16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I hope so. Would like to start seeing some improvement on D15 ensemble means but they still look like a dumpster fire right now. But yes, I’d also prefer to have our best chance in late December to February if we can get it. 

It would be incredibly rare to have a longwave pattern set in this early and dominate the whole winter. Not impossible but that’s not usually how we get a total dreg winter. The more common way (like 2002 and 2020) is when we waste a decent pattern in December into early January then a dreg pattern sets in early January that knocks out our best climo period. It’s not impossible to see this last 3 months but that isn’t typical even in our bad winters. 
 

But getting a better pattern doesn’t guarantee us anything either. In a Nina we tend to waste some good patterns also.  But this is one reason I favor a not so good but not necessarily a really awful winter. 

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8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS has a big step in the right direction. Still is rain for mostly everyone south of the mason dixon line but moves the snow line central PA (12z) to the mason dixon line. Might be time to start a thread?

Solid step toward the other guidance but no way is it time to start a thread. Maybe happy hour Tuesday??

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

So y'all can stop cluttering this one with talk of a nuisance storm. We have important things like SPV elongation and MJO progression to discuss. The actual winter is on the line here!!

My bad. I’ll try to do better. I know it’s been a bad week for you after Ji told you that you live in the ocean :lol:

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