OBS-Nowcast: Periods of showers, some heavy Midnight-6PM Friday 11/12/21 with iso SVR possible. Can use this thread to add any Thunder-hail-gust 45 MPH that may occur Sat afternoon.

[wdrag]

Please follow NWS statements on the potential for SVR midday Friday.  Otherwise,  scattered showers develop near midnight becoming bands of briefly moderate to heavy showers during the daylight hours, ending from west to east by around nightfall Friday. 

Rainfall generally in the 0.4-1.5" range;. Iso 2.5" possible.  Gusty surface winds to ~40 MPH BUT please follow NWS SPC on the marginal potential for an embedded SVR storm, even Tornado, due to the strong wind fields aloft and marginal instability for connecting to the surface.  This latter SPC threat is the primary reason for beginning this OBS-NOWCAST thread. 

 

EDIT: 444PM/11: Guidance seems to be ramping up surface gusts I95 eastward midday Fri...gusts 50 MPH.

The above is part ONE. (edit 626P/12 Will post CoCoRaHs data as best I can around 8A Saturday)

 

 

Part TWO is Saturday--- a 6 hour period of colder notable showers.  Edit 444PM: Modeling (some) is trying to focus energy (CAPE etc) for a thunderstorm vcnty NYC. If that happens, hail would also be possible.  [EDIT 626P/12  Part Two is on for Saturday midday-afternoon.  HRRR has a 'chance' of thunder north of NYC... but its modeled guidance suggest T might occur down to NYC.  Slight snow acc Poconos midday Saturday.]

Part Three is late Sunday-Monday with potential for general light precip with embedded moderate, and even some minor wet snow accumulations highest terrain northwest of I84.   

 

Let's focus on Part ONE when it arrives Friday, and we'll get to separate OBS threads, if needed, for parts Two and Three, if that is okay with everyone and if needed. 

[Snowlover11]

gusty winds and some pop up showers already here in yonkers.

[Stormlover74]

Temp back up to 61

[gravitylover]

58° and pretty windy, most leaves are down now, but not much rain with just .05 so far.

[weathermedic]

Nice squall line across upstate NY and trying to form in Pennsylvania as well.

 

 

[hudsonvalley21]

29 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

58° and pretty windy, most leaves are down now, but not much rain with just .05 so far.

61 here with 0.13 in the bucket so far. Breezy with a few wind gusts in the low 30’s at times for the last few hours.

[LoboLeader1]

64 here, some drizzle over night. Winds have been light so far.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just had some very strong winds on the uws, estimating gusts over 40. This area does really well with se winds as we are up on morning side heights, so we naturally Stick 150-200’ above the rest of the city to our Se. 

[dWave]

Some very strong winds howling in lower Manhattan. Didn't expect winds that strong. Workout for the day walking against it. With it alot of temps in the upper 60s now

[rclab]

Rain just ramped up to moderate over the postage stamp. As always …

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ... max g 27 MPH with the line on radar.  Differences in precip.. Ambient .46.  Tempest 0.55.  Go with the more conservative. Running side by side tests.

 

 

[Juliancolton]

Already lost power for about an hour this morning. Winds were undersold locally. Hopefully the incoming squall line doesn't wreak too much havoc. 

[wdrag]

So far, ho hum. Damage and wind gusts as more or less modeled.  

[BxEngine]

Pretty impressive little squall line. Just lost 2 trees on my street. 

[Juliancolton]

2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Pretty impressive little squall line. Just lost 2 trees on my street. 

I got rocked up here too. Power out again, branches down all over 

[Greg g]

Yea Bx but didn’t see any lightning or hear any thunder with it though 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

Yea Bx but didn’t see any lightning or hear any thunder with it though 

What i thought was thunder was my downspout flying across my deck. 

[hudsonvalley21]

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I got rocked up here too. Power out again, branches down all over 

KSWF had a gust recorded at 48. Squall line definitely had some gusts in the 40 range here with sheets of wind driven rain. 0.78 in the bucket with light rain falling.

Sorry to hear about the power issue, hopefully it will be back soon.

[hudsonvalley21]

10 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

What i thought was thunder was my downspout flying across my deck. 

Hopefully you didn’t have to chase it too far.  Luckily no real damage up this way in eyesight. A couple of trash cans tossed around, dodged a bullet compared to others. 

[Brian5671]

rainfall really underperforming here-models had well over an inch with some close to 2 inches yesterday, we'll be lucky to end at .50

[bluewave]

Pretty good rotation with the warned cell over Suffolk.

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1943.html

DISCUSSION...KOKX radar imagery has shown a long-lived rotating
   cluster of convection moving north from the shelf waters of the
   Atlantic to the south coast of eastern Long Island.  The KOKX VAD
   wind profile shows intense flow fields with an enlarged hodograph. 
   The main limiting factors are scant buoyancy and very weak lapse
   rates.  Nonetheless, the storm-scale forcing associated with the
   hybrid rotating cluster of convection may enable the risk for
   damaging gusts to be realized on a localized basis, as the
   convection moves north from eastern Long Island into CT over the
   next 1-2 hours.

 

[FPizz]

.37", max gust was 25 mph on my station.  

[wdrag]

I see Southold on e LI .. mesonet G52 MPH. 

[wdrag]

Several more reports today, courtesy LSR and associated platforms.

[wdrag]

Edited thread topic 626PM for your possible use. Seasonably interesting showery weather coming, MUCH cooler Saturday night. Most of the interesting action should be I80 region northward.

[wdrag]

Going to be interesting, esp CT. Here is SPC D1 outlook (MARGINAL RISK SVR). No other changes to Part Two expectations.  I do expect hailers especially C- eLI, maybe back to to NJ/se NYS, with minor snow acc Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires.  

[bluewave]

In addition to the severe potential that Walt outlined, there is a sting Jet-like feature right behind the low. So we could be looking at two rounds of higher winds. The low level lapse rates steepen behind the storm in the CAA which could allow westerly 50-60 mph gusts.

 

 

[wdrag]

Agree w Bluewave above...  I'll probably be off line 8A-5P-- hope you have action. I may chime in from Taylor PA near AVP if an when snow mixes or accums.  Follow your own model guidance and that of the NWS-SPC.  

We're not done yet,  Part Three Sunday eve-Monday, especially I84 snow showers and minor accums. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

In addition to the severe potential that Walt outlined, there is a sting Jet-like feature right behind the low. So we could be looking at two rounds of higher winds. The low level lapse rates steepen behind the storm in the CAA which could allow westerly 50-60 mph gusts.

 

 

What time should we expect the arrival of the possible sting jet?

[SnoSki14]

Looking to see how warm we get ahead of this. Usually warmer temps imply stronger mixing. Already 59F