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Potential Major Noreaster 10-26 through 10-27


ineedsnow
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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I thought it stabilizes through lowering lapse rates in precipitation?  Cool, moist saturated air?

I just know it seems that folks are usually like “wow rain stopped and wind started roaring”… I think there’s better mixing without rain cooled stabilizing boundary layer.

The real question is there an inversion present at all in the low levels?  If so I think rain stabilizes and strengthens the inversion.

Yeah the rain will act to strengthen an already existing inversion. Obviously with convection you can get some stronger downdrafts that can mix down to the sfc. My strongest downsloping is usually with abundant virga and very light precip reaching the ground. That evaporative cooling can give the downdrafts a little extra boost. Overall the higher and more mixed the layer is from the sfc the better off you’ll be. The coast this time of year gets good mixing in these systems with flow off of the warmer waters. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately, I have never heard of any kind of retarding or action belated based upon lack of antecedence -   

My immediate impression is that is meaningless  - storms happen by restoring forces, no other constraining factors - if the breach between the two sides is opened, A --> B until A = B.  Period.

When synoptic imbalances set up, the action of restoring ( " --> " ) is the 'storm event' - but A and B are wholly physically identifiable para and discrete metrics.

Like hot over there...cold over here... through moisture in between - boom. There's no "rehearsal" or practice about it.  

I understand your fuzzy with memory..  I'd have to read whatever it is you're referring to render a very good opinion  -but just based upon what you've said ..heh.

Yeah, synoptic storms don't happen in the summer because the atmospheric patterns that would be required aren't there, and don't produce the conditions needed.  When the seasonal conditions adjust, synoptic storms happen, and sometimes some patterns are better than others for producing storms.  No atmospheric learning there, just physics based on our yearly seasonal cycles. A very John Madden like assessment of the weather lol.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He has 45-60 here south and east. He’s good 

BOX has nothing and will be forced to issue warnings during the event . 

:blink:

Midday computer guidance shows increasing winds tonight. Not expecting major issues locally but gusts to 45 mph possible in the Hartford area and 55 mph around New Haven. Enough for scattered tree and powerline issues. RH

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the rain will act to strengthen an already existing inversion. Obviously with convection you can get some stronger downdrafts that can mix down to the sfc. My strongest downsloping is usually with abundant virga and very light precip reaching the ground. That evaporative cooling can give the downdrafts a little extra boost. Overally the higher and more mixed the layer is from the sfc the better off you’ll be. The coast this time of year gets good mixing in these systems with flow off of the warmer waters. 

Thanks for the clarity dude.  Makes sense along the coastal plain.  I’m (like you) more used to our interior climo where it seems rainfall is always stabilizing unless it’s a convective downburst or something. 

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21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z rap has like 70 knots at 950mb (not 925mb) on the south shore. Some areas there are gonna get absolutely smoked. Basically 1000 feet off the deck. Pine hills right on the shore there in PYM are prob ground zero. But some of the exposed spots up toward BOS (like Braintree/Weymouth/Marshfield axis) could get hit very hard as well. 

Was just looking at PYM. Looks like strongest winds may be between about 1:00-3:00 AM

image.png.31b14da5bb7f384b96d839afd832b4cb.png

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