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October Discobs 2021


George BM
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The coastal flooding is obviously very significant and could potentially be very costly but the rest of this storm is very meh. Rainfall will probably end up around an inch and the winds look like they will top out at gusts in the low 40's. Radar looks like the back edge, except for some isolated pockets, isn't all that far away.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The coastal flooding is obviously very significant and could potentially be very costly but the rest of this storm is very meh. Rainfall will probably end up around an inch and the winds look like they will top out at gusts in the low 40's. Radar looks like the back edge, except for some isolated pockets, isn't all that far away.

       But the heaviest convective elements have yet to move through the areas on the east side of the Potomac, and the HRRR (and other CAMs) have been suggesting redevelopment which will keep the rain going for a while, and the latest HRRR runs suggest another 1-2 inches for some.     Accordingly, WPC is discussing potential flash flooding in the 2-5pm time frame:    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1115&yr=2021

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

       But the heaviest convective elements have yet to move through the areas on the east side of the Potomac, and the HRRR (and other CAMs) have been suggesting redevelopment which will keep the rain going for a while, and the latest HRRR runs suggest another 1-2 inches for some.     Accordingly, WPC is discussing potential flash flooding in the 2-5pm time frame:    https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=1115&yr=2021

If that area fills in and we get a nasty line to form, it could change things and maybe we get higher winds and end up closer to 2-3 inches. It just looks rather sporadic once you get past Southern MD. I guess it really depends on what happens in that area northeast of Richmond that seems to be trying to expand a bit. I'm curious if a new line is going to form or if the line northwest of DC is the one shown on most models as being the main show.

The NAM looked really impressive about 24 hours ago but definitely looked less impressive since then.

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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Wow.  Some high tides up to 5’ above ground level along western bay areas!

Yeah, that's definitely the story of this storm so far. Hope it doesn't rise too much higher for those folks. I wonder what the highest tides were during Isabel. I remember some areas in Baltimore County were basically wiped out.

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18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

The coastal flooding is obviously very significant and could potentially be very costly but the rest of this storm is very meh. Rainfall will probably end up around an inch and the winds look like they will top out at gusts in the low 40's. Radar looks like the back edge, except for some isolated pockets, isn't all that far away.

Rainfall was never supposed to be the main feature of this system.

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18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that's definitely the story of this storm so far. Hope it doesn't rise too much higher for those folks. I wonder what the highest tides were during Isabel. I remember some areas in Baltimore County were basically wiped out.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt40.pdf

Report done by NOAA following Isabel

Page 21 in the report has tidal gauge readings vs historical stuff

Looks like the max for the Baltimore gauge was 8.14 feet (on page 22)

 

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25 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If that area fills in and we get a nasty line to form, it could change things and maybe we get higher winds and end up closer to 2-3 inches. It just looks rather sporadic once you get past Southern MD. I guess it really depends on what happens in that area northeast of Richmond that seems to be trying to expand a bit. I'm curious if a new line is going to form or if the line northwest of DC is the one shown on most models as being the main show.

The NAM looked really impressive about 24 hours ago but definitely looked less impressive since then.

               There is a large area of heavy rain with convective elements now affecting the areas just east of DC moving north into Howard Co and the Baltimore area, with more redevelopment further south.   I'm not saying that it's going to be a widespread 4-5" event or anything like that, but the totals are really going to add up over the next few hours.

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32 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that's definitely the story of this storm so far. Hope it doesn't rise too much higher for those folks. I wonder what the highest tides were during Isabel. I remember some areas in Baltimore County were basically wiped out.

1991 was huge and then it was 92/93 for another then Isabel then 2011 as far as big fetch driven flood events  I can remember. 

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25 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Had the pleasure of meeting @H20 “chasing”

Video below taken from south of Old Town.

http://

It was nice to meet you too and also meet my daughter who is just as nutty as me with weather.  Its nice to know I'm not totally crazy for wanting to see the flooding.

 

GW parkway not gonna be the best for driving and other places too.

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