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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


40/70 Benchmark
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13 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

FWIW, the NBM has a mean around 3.8" for FIT but a median of 4.7", so there are actually quite a lot of pieces of guidance (much like individual EPS members) that are real soakers.

Wild applause for using a median and not just a mean.  That provides so much more context to what's being depicted.

Now if we can start using SD, people will stop thinking that "normal" and "average" are the same thing.......

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13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day.

It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine.

Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5"

Not spamming at all the potential is there

 

1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding.

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9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Not spamming at all the potential is there

 

1) heavy rain and potential for urban and street flooding given ample moisture and lift (low level jet of 60-70 kts at 925 mb!). Ensemble means are painting a widespread 3-5 inches of rain through Wednesday evening while some deterministic runs show as much as 8-10 inches. Though widespread amounts of this magnitude are unlikely, it is a concerning signal/trend, and urban/small stream flooding is a concern. The ECMWF probability of 4 inches of rain is 70-80%! (and 30-60% chance of that much within 24 hours). One additional concern this time of year is fallen leaves clogging storm drains, exacerbating street flooding.

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26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day.

It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine.

Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5"

I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal.

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30 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ineedsnow spamming posts left and right over the last day.

It's just an Autumn Noreaster, we'll do just fine.

Looking to get 1.51" to crack 5"

Yea just an Autumn Noreaster, um... Precip anomalies for this one are as high as 1065% AN in the Berks, ORH county.

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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I didn't know autumn nor'easters casually spew 8-12" totals. Unless that's the new normal.

We have had a few spit out many inches of rain. 1996 was one in October. Maybe the 8-12 is high as forecasted, but we have had many that fall into the 3-6" range.

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Damage 

damaging winds, thanks to that same low level jet, and aided by
nearly fully leafed trees. BUFKIT soundings indicate potential for
winds of nearly 70 kts at the top of the mixed layer Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

 

How high up is the top of the mixed layer?

 

16 minutes ago, klw said:

Leaf-filled storm drains ftl.  Glad I had my sump-pump replaced.

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21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

First frost, but still a bit too much wind to bottom out like the rad pits. 33.5° so far, but CON was 28° before mixing back out. Looks like I’ll go into November for the first time without a freeze.

This airmass really moderated vs the guidance from a week ago. I guess my bitchin’ paid off. No frost here, and the threat of rain the next few days with onshore flow means the garden is still in the clear for the next few weeks. I’m happy.

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

How high up is the top of the mixed layer?

 

Leaf-filled storm drains ftl.  Glad I had my sump-pump replaced.

The interior would Be wedged so winds likely tempered there. Just depends on storm track.

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