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October Discussion: Bring the Frost-Hold the Snow


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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it really poured just NW of Portland. Euro had an idea, but if it’s gonna rain heavy, it would be in a linear training fashion, not these weenie cells it showed. 

It did with the WF lifting off to the NE

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like it really poured just NW of Portland. Euro had an idea, but if it’s gonna rain heavy, it would be in a linear training fashion, not these weenie cells it showed. 

No that busted - good call there...

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14 hours ago, weathafella said:

Definitely a much cooler pattern although certainly not cold yet.  Starting next week.

 

Looks like seasonally oscillatory to me...  Not that anyone asked, looks normal autumn cool backs followed by tepid sun mild ups.  

I think the hints of a siggy coastal in the last week of the month has some mass-field identity ( progs ) and may be legit in general - save any details.

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is it ever going to frost/ freeze this year? I mean nothing north to south thru Helloween even on Ginx charts 

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that.   It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now.  Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive.  lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening.  Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma.  

I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though.  Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too.

Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way.

It rolls out quickly mid week.  Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last.  

After that gets interesting.

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The upcoming cooler air mass is pretty average. A true cold blast this time of year would produce a morning with lows in the 20s all the way to the coast, and I'm not sure we'll even see widespread 30s to the coast in the next 7-10 days let alone a freeze.

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Reported 0.21" to cocorahs and maybe another 0.05" after that 7 AM obs.  Oct. 1-14 had been quite dry (0.04") but tonight should correct that.  Glad I raked leaves yesterday when they were dry and light.  Yesterday's low of 57° was 22° AN and this morning's low was about the same.  Peak of summer - late July - has average minima of 55°.
PWM reported 1.13" from 2-8 AM, and had a TS.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The air mass arriving post fropa this evening...particularly when it nadirs later Monday would be a candidate but ... the advection terms might offset that.   It's close to being able to decouple with the longer nights now.  Anywhere that does likely frosts early Tuesday a.m., but I don't think it is pervasive.  lots of 37s with leaf stripping breezes overnight would keep that from happening.  Could be a partial car-topper out around Orange, Ma.  

I think you need to prepare for an upper 40s at 1200', to just mid or upper 50s interior lower els and the coastal plain Tuesday, though.  Probably some whisking self-destruction CAA clouds too.

Chilly enough for jackets... modestly below normal, and by lax acclimation it will be feel that way.

It rolls out quickly mid week.  Euro has a solid two day stint back toward the upper 60s almost immediately beginning late Wed afternoon - which I wonder if that's too fast.. In fact, the 850 would support 74 Thursday, but unlike recently... that doesn't last.  

After that gets interesting.

I think we’ll see mid maybe upper 50’s here Monday and Tuesday . With 60-61 for BOS and valleys. Either way.. a nice but short lived break from this endless summer 

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Sun poking through and temp spiking to 68 in a hurry.

For up here, the coming “cool shot” just looks like a couple days of normal before the furnace returns. What a sustained warm pattern this has been. Locked in.

Hopefully this will lead to a major rubber band snap for DJFM. 

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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think we’ll see mid maybe upper 50’s here Monday and Tuesday . With 60-61 for BOS and valleys. Either way.. a nice but short lived break from this endless summer 

So you’re saying day after day mid 70s after the cool down?   

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Nothing like a SVR Watch in mid-October.

4BC01962-2965-48D0-9440-5C65A8A676B7.gif.215c821a2b417893d55b328954a6459a.gif

  The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Far western Connecticut
     Far western Massachusetts
     Eastern New York
     Northeast Pennsylvania
     Vermont

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
     until 700 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A thin, low-topped convective line should intensify as it
   spreads east across eastern New York into western New England, as
   well as possibly across northeast Pennsylvania. A brief tornado
   threat is anticipated across parts of the Champlain and Upper Hudson
   Valleys.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
   of Burlington VT to 30 miles south southwest of Monticello NY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

 

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