snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS continues the above normal temperatures into November. Oct 25- Nov 1 Nov 1-Nov 8 Nov 8- Nov 15 Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Gfs brings the cold in here during the 1st week of November. Most likely too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Evidence is mounting for a rebound and strengthening of the SPV next month: Evidence is also mounting for a colder pattern later next month. La Nina winters usually start out cold but them get warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think we get warm sectored Monday pretty hard and then flip a lot colder by Tuesday. Like mid 70s to low 50s type of deal. we need to go with our (now) regular climate patterns. I find it very hard to believe we wont get to 70 sometime between next week and the the start of astronomical winter and also at some point later during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, lee59 said: Lee Goldberg indicating a pattern change and this could be our mildest night until next spring. We shall see. Hopefully not, I have zero plans to turn my house heat on before November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the warmer departures to the north pattern has been stuck in place since last winter. You could say that all the heat building up in the Arctic is finally making its way southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Evidence is also mounting for a colder pattern later next month. La Nina winters usually start out cold but them get warmer. If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming Just like your winter forecast last year . We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s and 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 68° Newark: 72° Philadelphia: 68° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 62.8° Newark: 30-Year: 63.7°; 15-Year: 64.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3° A cooler weekend lies ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 60degs.(54/67), or +6. Month to date is 64.3[+4.6]. Could be 63.2[+5.0] by the 30th. Only reached 69* here yesterday with the sea breeze. Today: 67-70, wind w. to n. to ne. P. cloudy/M. cloudy. 63*(78%RH) here at 6am. 62* at 7am. 63* at 9am. 66* at Noon. 69* at 3pm. 70* at 3:30pm. Reached 71* around 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Very mild morning at 63 degrees. Meanwhile up north in the Adirondacks, looks like a weekend of mixed rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 hours ago, Neblizzard said: Just like your winter forecast last year . We know how horrible that was . Once again you’re putting all the emphasis on the La Niña when other factors may come into play similiar to last year. I never made a winter forecast last year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Warmest fall on record through October 20th for many stations across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Just an absolute scorcher since August. Even a return to normal would feel cold given current anomalies. Very scary times we're looking living in. I imagine within a decade or two numerous 80s in October will be the norm with 90+ temperatures possible. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 https://ibb.co/xs7TtYd It's going to get warm to overperform here days 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: If it gets colder later next month it will come from a PAC reshuffle with the tropical convective forcing, not from some crazy SSW and super weak SPV like Joe Bastardi has been hyping to no end for the last 2 months. His wishcast of a major SSW/super weak SPV causing an uber cold November - January looks to be an epic fail incoming JB has jumped the shark. No one really gives him much credence anymore.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 How can anyone say what January will be ? Long range forecasts have taken a big hit in the last 2 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How can anyone say what January will be ? Long range forecasts have taken a big hit in the last 2 years. Magic 8 ball? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 19 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Magic 8 ball? Last winter was supposed to be a winter with lack of snow but it was the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 warming quickly here-maybe another over-performer on temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 Low of only 61 here…63 at ISP, have to be record high minimums? We probably get cooler than that before midnight but that is a warm min for late October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 63 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I never made a winter forecast last year lol Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 44 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: Check out your posts from last November..All doom and gloom To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. To early to talk about the winter. Every Fall this happens on the boards..Lets not get ahead of ourselves..Let it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 I don’t even remember last winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: I don’t even remember last winter lol The 15” storm we got on 2/1? I definitely remember that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: To be fair most were thinking we were doomed last Nov. I did too. I thought it would be a miracle if we made it normal snow and most us made it to 40”. I would say the tea leaves so far generally indicate a lousy/warm winter again but lots of factors at play besides just La Niña which the NWS prediction essentially took Nina climo off the printer and used that for the winter outlook. Above normal temps and above normal snowfall has become a good bet. It's what we've seen so much of in the the last 2 decades. We're able to pull off big snowstorms in warm winters and mediocre to lousy patterns in this new climate that we have. It has become a Colorado-like climate with the combination of warmer temps and plenty of big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted October 22, 2021 Share Posted October 22, 2021 This winter like most will come down to the NAO. There are good signs that we will have episodes of blocking which will certainly help our cause, but will it be a dominating force or just brief occurrences? Unfortunately the NAO is a very difficult feature to forecast especially in the long range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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