lee59 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 69 degrees and cloudy here, looks like another day of cloudiness holding temps. down a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Maybe but it can also never gain strength. Allsnow is right , cold weather is wasteful now. 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We will probably be having some interesting conversations on the significance of such a strong early season warming. Yeah, in 19-20 we had a huge warming event before December. Then the Pv went bonkers to end December and the winter was toast. Last year it never really recovered which allowed for a ssw in January. I believe that had a huge part in the snowy February we had. We really won’t know the state of all this until mid December. With the enso state currently the biggest factors will be Mjo and Pv 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the upgraded Euro has an impressive looking squall line for mid-October. This is a great product to have now for the euro but the day 7 snowstorm maps are going to be nauseating this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: This is a great product to have now for the euro but the day 7 snowstorm maps are going to be nauseating this winter. I am just hoping the big upgrade fixes the EC storm suppression issue of recent years. We had to rely on the NAM for big events like the January 2016 blizzard. Seems like something changed after the Euro nailed Sandy and Nemo in 12-13. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 If I was told I could have a beer outside, in shorts, tee shirt and barefoot, while low clouds hang around on October 13, I would never believe it. But here we are, kind of a humid feel but comfortable. (dont worry already worked a 4-12 shift , that calls for a beer) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am just hoping the big upgrade fixes the EC storm suppression issue of recent years. We had had to rely on the NAM for big events like the January 2016 blizzard. Seems like something changed after the Euro nailed Sandy and Nemo in 12-13. Thats a good point. I think one of the upgrades after sandy messed with it. Hopefully, it returns to form in some areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 Expect 70 degrees on Christmas eve 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Opening presents by the pool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Didn’t he predict that we were supposed to be in a Modoki El Niño right now last winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Can we please stop taking anything he says seriously. I'm still waiting for the big global cooling he promised 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 I think the first 40s of the season for Central Park will occur this Sunday and Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: After our little cool shot sunday into monday, the warmup for mid next week is looking more and more impressive. Probably well into the 70s wednesday and thursday next week, before the next cool shot for the weekend of the 23rd. nice I hope it's better and warmer than the yucky cloudy clammy weather we have right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the upgraded Euro has an impressive looking squall line for mid-October. let's get the short term right first lol- why is it overcast today? It was supposed to be sunny and warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: That long range November forecast blocking pattern looks like it’s a result of the very early SPV disruption. So, if we were to have a severely disrupted vortex in October or November, it’s possible this would help a stronger vortex develop aloft right around peak cooling rate – thus giving a chance for a stronger vortex to dominate during mid-winter. [6/9] Also, tropospheric continental cold air masses have yet to fully develop like they are in mid-late winter. So, if you like cold weather, a vortex disruption earlier in the season could be wasteful, as it might preclude one happening later when cold reserves are maximised. [7/9] 2016/17 began with a spectacularly weak vortex, but that terminated quickly in Dec and the vortex became very strong, as wave activity declined during the disruption. Subsequently, the back half of the winter saw several minor warmings. [8/9] Remember when we talked about how early cold can have bad implications for the winter? Like snow and cold in November, etc, it takes a long time for the pattern to recover and by that time you've lost December, which you really need to have go your way in a winter of this type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: let's get the short term right first lol- why is it overcast today? It was supposed to be sunny and warm yep bust on that today-the lower sun angle unable to burn off the low cloud deck today.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: If I never see a tweet or word mentioned by the clown known as Joe Bastardi, I would be pleased. He is a master at hype and spin with very little substance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 i am so looking forward to the chill down on sunday into early next week tired of this humidity in the air 68 degrees with a dew point of 62 for mid october... smh... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep bust on that today-the lower sun angle unable to burn off the low cloud deck today.... lee goldberg busted yesterday saying the sun would break out this afternoon..in the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Remember when we talked about how early cold can have bad implications for the winter? Like snow and cold in November, etc, it takes a long time for the pattern to recover and by that time you've lost December, which you really need to have go your way in a winter of this type November has been our only fall month to regularly experience cold departures. But the record warmth in November 2020, 2015, and 2011 were exceptions to the rule. Since September and October have had so much record warmth, Fall 2015 was our #1 warmest….2017…..#2…..2011 and 2016…..#3……2020…..#6. So these delayed falls have become more common over the last decade. Fall monthly temperature departures in the 5 boroughs of NYC and Long Island September departures 202109 69.2°F 122 3.4°F 202009 66.9°F 99 1.1°F 201909 67.4°F 107 1.6°F 201809 69.6°F 124 3.8°F 201709 68.6°F 118 2.8°F 201609 69.4°F 123 3.6°F 201509 70.8°F 126 5.0°F 201409 67.4°F 107 1.6°F 201309 64.4°F 41 -1.4°F 201209 66.7°F 97 0.9°F 201109 68.7°F 119 2.9°F 201009 68.8°F 121 3.0°F October 202010 57.0°F 104 2.0°F 201910 58.0°F 115 3.0°F 201810 56.5°F 94 1.5°F 201710 62.0°F 126 7.0°F 201610 57.6°F 110 2.6°F 201510 55.5°F 76 0.5°F 201410 57.8°F 112 2.8°F 201310 57.5°F 108 2.5°F 201210 57.9°F 113 2.9°F 201110 56.6°F 97 1.6°F 201010 56.4°F 92 1.4°F November 202011 49.6°F 120 3.7°F 201911 42.3°F 29 -3.6°F 201811 43.6°F 55 -2.3°F 201711 45.6°F 85 -0.3°F 201611 48.2°F 115 2.3°F 201511 50.2°F 126 4.3°F 201411 43.8°F 58 -2.1°F 201311 43.7°F 56 -2.2°F 201211 42.8°F 39 -3.1°F 201111 49.8°F 124 3.9°F 201011 46.2°F 96 0.3°F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i am so looking forward to the chill down on sunday into early next week tired of this humidity in the air 68 degrees with a dew point of 62 for mid october... smh... October so far has had that cloudy, dreary feeling you get in autumn but with late summer temperatures & humidity. Very bizarre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: October so far has had that cloudy, dreary feeling you get in autumn but with late summer temperatures & humidity. Very bizarre. We still had a +10 departure today even with all the clouds around. But the minimum departure was more impressive than the maximum. Several of the models were showing the potential for more clouds from the forecasts yesterday. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 447 PM EDT WED OCT 13 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR OCTOBER 13 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 72 259 PM 89 1954 67 5 61 MINIMUM 64 312 AM 34 2012 50 14 53 AVERAGE 68 58 10 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 It was mostly cloudy but still unseasonably mild for the season. Many locations saw the temperature reach or exceed 70°. Newark reached 70° for the 167th time this year. As a result, 2021 is now tied with 1995 and 2012 for the 9th most days on record. In the Northern Plains, heavy rain fell in parts of North Dakota. Through 7 pm CDT, Bismarck had picked up 1.38" of rain. That surpassed the October 13 daily record of 0.97", which had been set in 1940. This is the second largest daily rainfall on record for October. It was also the second day this month with 1" or more rainfall. That ties the October record of two such days. That record was set in 1994 and tied in 2013. Moreover, 2021 is the only year in which two top-10 daily rainfalls occurred in the same year. Records go back to 1874. In addition, Bismarck has yet to experience its first freeze of the season. The latest first freeze on record occurred on October 14, 2008. Tomorrow will become noticeably warmer as ample sunshine returns. Friday could see the temperature approach or reach 80° in many parts of the region. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers and even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels. The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +14.50 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.207 today. On October 11 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.179 (RMM). The October 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.866 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Had a bunch of hours of sunshine out here. High was 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Hit 70 degrees here today. Feels very mild out tonight. If the sun comes out tomorrow, we may finally get those temps well into the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Yeah another similar day here, socked in with stratus...69/58 split... +4.2° departure mtd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 @bluewave marginal for now, have to see if they upgrade to a slight risk as we move closer. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 58 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: @bluewave marginal for now, have to see if they upgrade to a slight risk as we move closer. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Lots of wind in the profile... no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri. Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward. Will recheck Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and very warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 78° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 65.1°; 15-Year: 66.0° Newark: 30-Year: 66.6°; 15-Year: 67.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.9°; 15-Year: 68.7° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 14, 2021 Share Posted October 14, 2021 30 minutes ago, wdrag said: Lots of wind in the profile... no thread from myself at this time. will rereview early Fri. Instability acceptable but not exceptional. My guess is isolated svr I95 northwestward. Will recheck Friday. That would be great. We need the rain as things have really dried out the last couple weeks city, east. And. To break the monotony of one of the most boring weather periods possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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