Allsnow Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Agreed-cold Novembers don't do alot in these parts....(except maybe the last 5 days of the month) 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: We had all that wasted cold in November 2019 though we did get a minor slop event in early December before we flipped to warm 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Yeah that’s what I’m thinking too. We’ve seen this episode before. Warm oct-cold 6 weeks to start nov-warm up just in time for mid december. Yup. We have experienced enough wasted cold in November to last a lifetime. A warm October/November doesn’t make me nervous at all for the upcoming winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 maybe the thing that beefs up our snowstorms is also causing a bunch of months to be warm 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 November 1959 had what is called wasted cold and you could have said that the first half of Dec 59 but a snowstorm and cold wave just before Christmas changed all that...there was a huge block in Nov. 59...I think the strongest ever...the snowstorm and cold wave came with little or no blocking...winters with a -5sd or lower usually were very cold, snowy or both...March 1960 had a historic snowstorm ( a blizzard by todays standards )... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 the coldest 23 Novembers since 1955 yielded 10 cold winters... 10 medium winters 3 mild... 8 snowy... 8 mediocre... 7 bad to awful... 6 cold and snowy... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: maybe the thing that beefs up our snowstorms is also causing a bunch of months to be warm Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 12, 2021 Share Posted October 12, 2021 Seems I saw this cartoon before. The 46 day cartoon---OOPS!......I mean Outlook----looks the same. There are attempts at Normal 7 day periods centered on Oct. 23 and some undercutting cooler air trying to get in from the south and southwest during the period of November covered by the full run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Under variably cloudy skies, readings reached the upper 60s and lower 70s today. Newark reached 70° for the 166th time this year. As a result, 2021 now as the 11th highest figure on record. Tomorrow will likely be a bit warmer. Sunshine and much above normal temperatures are likely Thursday and Friday. Saturday will be another very warm day, but some showers are even a thundershower are possible as a strong cold front moves across the region. Behind the frontal passage, readings will return to near normal levels. The MJO is currently passing through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evoluton and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around October 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely yield to La Niña conditions later this month. The SOI was +12.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.788 today. On October 10 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.864 (RMM). The October 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.704 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.9° (4.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 11 hours ago, bluewave said: Late season severe possible this weekend as Pamela gets absorbed by the rapidly deepening Great Lakes low. Is that....THE Pamela???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecovers94 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Hi everyone, Lurk all the time on here but have a compelling question... can someone explain what is causing the overnight lows to be so high for so long? I don't think I remember an October where it's taken so long to go into the 40s. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. The bugs are loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. The bugs are loving it. I still hear katydids every night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 52 minutes ago, psv88 said: My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. The bugs are loving it. Bringing the south shore gunk up with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, tdp146 said: I still hear katydids every night. Yeah I was just thinking that, still sounds like an early fall night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 14 hours ago, bluewave said: Late season severe possible this weekend as Pamela gets absorbed by the rapidly deepening Great Lakes low. With the right setup fall severe weather events can be pretty potent. Will be interesting to see how things evolve as we move closer to Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 69/59 temp split today...Last four days saw highs between 65-70 and only getting down to near 60 at night...avg. lows here are in the upper 40's by this date. Rainfall to date of 0.53". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 13, 2021 Author Share Posted October 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, doncat said: 69/59 temp split today...Last four days saw highs between 65-70 and only getting down to near 60 at night...avg. lows here are in the upper 40's by this date. Rainfall to date of 0.53". Down to 57 now and that's the coolest it's been in quite some time Edit back up to 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 First September without a minimum in 40s since 2017. Also been here only 6 years. 45° low so far this Autumn. Dry, too, only 0.17" this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 71° Newark: 75° Philadelphia: 75° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 65.5°; 15-Year: 66.5° Newark: 30-Year: 67.0°; 15-Year: 68.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.3°; 15-Year: 69.2° A generally warmer than normal regime will continue into the weekend before a strong cold moves across the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 19 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we’ll see if it holds this colder look for early to mid-November in later runs. Some similarities to 2012-13 here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: Bringing the south shore gunk up with me. hey at least we dont have to turn the heat on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 15 hours ago, uncle W said: the coldest 23 Novembers since 1955 yielded 10 cold winters... 10 medium winters 3 mild... 8 snowy... 8 mediocre... 7 bad to awful... 6 cold and snowy... how many seasons with snowfall of 50 inches or more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 20 hours ago, bluewave said: Late season severe possible this weekend as Pamela gets absorbed by the rapidly deepening Great Lakes low. Pacific systems dont get much attention in these parts, this is the first time I've seen such a system get attention here. Looks like the Atlantic is shut down for business? I'm shocked that the GOM has been so quiet, it's usually good for a late season event or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 66degs.(59/73), or +7. Month to date is 65.2[+3.8]. Could be 65.5[+5.1] by the 21st. GEFS still has no BN 'Travelling 5-Day' period showing for us and seems to be warming again as October is ending. Reached 73 here yesterday. Today: 73-77, w. to sw. wind, clouds. 65*(85%RH) here at 6am. 68* at Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 9 hours ago, psv88 said: My low for the season is 46. This is the latest that my location has failed to drop below 46 since i have been here (6 years). Most years have dipped into the 30s by now, and some below freezing. The bugs are loving it. The area around ISP is headed for the latest first 45° of fall on record. The previous latest was set back in 2017. But you can see all the late dates in recent years with the delayed fall patterns. The recent average first date from 2010 to 2020 was 10-3. From 1964 to 1980 the average was 10 days earlier around 9-23. First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYEach section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 1983 05-28 (1983) 45 10-16 (1983) 43 140 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2007 05-18 (2007) 45 10-13 (2007) 39 147 1967 06-01 (1967) 42 10-12 (1967) 45 132 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 when was the last sept-oct-nov that averaged below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: when was the last sept-oct-nov that averaged below normal? 2018, 2012 by todays standards...2000 is the last time all three months were below average... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 58 minutes ago, forkyfork said: when was the last sept-oct-nov that averaged below normal? 2013 when you average out all the local stations. Before that it was 2000. But notice how weak the cold departures were even on those two years. 2013….NYC 5 boroughs and Long Island SON average departure -0.3…….Northern NJ…..-0.1 2000….-0.6…..-0.2 NY climate division 4 NJ climate division 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 Low clouds hanging tough area wide with the lower sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: That long range forecast November blocking pattern on the weeklies looks like it’s part of the very early disruption of the SPV. So, if we were to have a severely disrupted vortex in October or November, it’s possible this would help a stronger vortex develop aloft right around peak cooling rate – thus giving a chance for a stronger vortex to dominate during mid-winter. [6/9] Also, tropospheric continental cold air masses have yet to fully develop like they are in mid-late winter. So, if you like cold weather, a vortex disruption earlier in the season could be wasteful, as it might preclude one happening later when cold reserves are maximised. [7/9] 2016/17 began with a spectacularly weak vortex, but that terminated quickly in Dec and the vortex became very strong, as wave activity declined during the disruption. Subsequently, the back half of the winter saw several minor warmings. [8/9] Maybe but it can also never gain strength. Allsnow is right , cold weather is wasteful now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 13, 2021 Share Posted October 13, 2021 After our little cool shot sunday into monday, the warmup for mid next week is looking more and more impressive. Probably well into the 70s wednesday and thursday next week, before the next cool shot for the weekend of the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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