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Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range


nj2va
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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air.

Do you think we will need to see the GOA trough retrograde before we realistically have a good chance at a colder pattern other than barely normal? I know we are in laniña, but was just curious 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air.

True but I’ll counter him with 3 points. 


1) by day 15 the EPS and GEPS hint that pacific look was transient and not necessarily a huge problem. 
 

2) It’s so far out and things have been variable at that range that I’m not sure his “alarm” is warranted yet 

3) expectations need to be set accordingly. Imo our range of likely outcomes this winter wrt snow are awful to ok.  The pac base state is likely to be more bad than good most of the time. I’m leaning toward “ok” but the way we get there is for the pacific ridge to be more poleward and the NAO to be favorable at times then time then up with a few periods of “less hostile” pacific longwave patterns. So far I see signs both those things might be true.  That’s all I’m asking for right now. 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s not totally wrong. That -NAO might help keep us a bit more seasonable, but a lot of the country will have well AN temps with that -PNA out west. And it will flush Canada of cold air.

As usual, the challenges with changing patterns and alignment on the right features at the right times is a game of luck! A more favorable pattern does not always equal a good outcome. We know it is not just the right pattern signals, but also the right items in the right places at the right time to get wintry weather. Also, in transition periods the models obviously get the details wrong even if they provide clues to what could happen. My take, (and I realize I ain't no pro!) is that we will miss out as the  couple of opportunities that showed are no longer there, but, the pattern is slightly more favorable for a feature or system to do provide some flakes. So far, the few blips of potential have been lost on subsequent model runs and this slightly favorable period looks like a miss for anything in the region. The cold does not seem lasting (which I think we will have to get used to this winter, but especially this time of year) and the more zonal look of the long-range should be no surprise to anyone. Maybe something is being missed or not represented right on the models, but I think we remain waiting with a few small cold shots! Maybe we get lucky!

 

 

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

As usual, the challenges with changing patterns and alignment on the right features at the right times is a game of luck! A more favorable pattern does not always equal a good outcome. We know it is not just the right pattern signals, but also the right items in the right places at the right time to get wintry weather. Also, in transition periods the models obviously get the details wrong even if they provide clues to what could happen. My take, (and I realize I ain't no pro!) is that we will miss out as the  couple of opportunities that showed are no longer there, but, the pattern is slightly more favorable for a feature or system to do provide some flakes. So far, the few blips of potential have been lost on subsequent model runs and this slightly favorable period looks like a miss for anything in the region. The cold does not seem lasting (which I think we will have to get used to this winter, but especially this time of year) and the more zonal look of the long-range should be no surprise to anyone. Maybe something is being missed or not represented right on the models, but I think we remain waiting with a few small cold shots! Maybe we get lucky!

 

 

Every year it is rinse and repeat.  Our reminder was this latest Lucy. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

True but I’ll counter him with 3 points. 


1) by day 15 the EPS and GEPS hint that pacific look was transient and not necessarily a huge problem. 
 

2) It’s so far out and things have been variable at that range that I’m not sure his “alarm” is warranted yet 

3) expectations need to be set accordingly. Imo our range of likely outcomes this winter wrt snow are awful to ok.  The pac base state is likely to be more bad than good most of the time. I’m leaning toward “ok” but the way we get there is for the pacific ridge to be more poleward and the NAO to be favorable at times then time then up with a few periods of “less hostile” pacific longwave patterns. So far I see signs both those things might be true.  That’s all I’m asking for right now. 

I haven’t seen the EPS that far out in awhile but GEPS and GEFS do look worlds apart in the PAC after D7 or so. 
 

Things have been pretty transient across the CONUS with the -NAO and the -WPO seemingly the most persistent long wave patterns impacting us of late. Both have some Nina/QBO/PDO support for being persistent this winter. 
 

I hope that trough doesn’t crash into the west coast too much. I don’t mind having a meh snow pattern in early December…we don’t get much snow then anyway. But I definitely don’t want to flush Canada of cold air. That takes 2-3 weeks to recover. Need to have cold air available to tap when we get a chance. 

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With the NAO trending +, the AO trending +, the PNA trending -, the MJO confused and in search of an identity, that causes the NO index for SNO to trend in the severely - direction. This is just IMO, and could be wrong, especially with no strong SIG in the ENS.

CBS for further updates and a SITREP.

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55 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB says december  is going to be  cold and snowy so that's that!!

December to Remember!  He was touting that non-stop a couple years ago and how the pattern was going to be crazy cold and stormy.  Turns out it blowtorched all month and was one of the least snowy Decembers on record or something like that.  Most reliable contrarian indicator.  It's definitely over now.

 

Maybe low solar can save us.

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December to Remember!  He was touting that non-stop a couple years ago and how the pattern was going to be crazy cold and stormy.  Turns out it blowtorched all month and was one of the least snowy Decembers on record or something like that.  Most reliable contrarian indicator.  It's definitely over now.
 
Maybe low solar can save us.

He just constantly talks about snow and cold and it doesn’t matter how often he’s incorrect or what he makes up. His audience has been groomed to fall for his hype. No accountability at all. Sounds familiar.
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  • nj2va changed the title to Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range
5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With the NAO trending +, the AO trending +, the PNA trending -, the MJO confused and in search of an identity, that causes the NO index for SNO to trend in the severely - direction. This is just IMO, and could be wrong, especially with no strong SIG in the ENS.

CBS for further updates and a SITREP.

I read that the WTF index is very unfavorable, too.

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