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Hurricane Ida's Remnants


SnowenOutThere
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Hopefully everyone has ensured their gutters are debris free and the downspouts are free of obstruction.  A few minutes of Niagara Falls off the edge is one thing during a gully washer type thunderstorm but persistent training and torrential downpours lasting hours can put a lot of water where you don't need or want it!

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Unless radar fills in, majority of the rain shield looks to be west of 81 I think anyone in the immediate nova/DC area expecting more than an inch are going to be highly disappointed. Maybe some isolated higher amounts but current radar depiction doesn’t look good if your rooting for a lot of rain. 

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You guys know how to forecast so please help me out because I got vans and trucks going back and forth from Beltsville to Frederick tomorrow including back roads near Monocacy.  I need your input to get a decision finally about what to do and because of it I’m not on top of Ida. 
Thanks 

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Just now, andyhb said:

The cell south of Charlottesville has quite a meso on it, but that central VA radar hole is being a giant pain.

What about that area near Beech Grove, does that look suspicious, or is it fine...

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image.png.fe19be620287bf29f617817498901b6c.png

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1001 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

   Areas affected...portions of western VA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 480...

   Valid 010301Z - 010430Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for brief tornadoes continues across Tornado
   Watch 480.

   DISCUSSION...Several cells near Rockbridge to Albemarle counties in
   western/central VA have intensified over the past hour or so. These
   cells continue to exhibit periods of weak low-level rotation as they
   shift north/northeast. This activity is occurring in the vicinity of
   a surface boundary draped across the region and within a corridor of
   stronger low-level instability (0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-125 m2/s2).
   Low-level shear is somewhat less favorable with northeast extent
   compared to earlier this evening, but still sufficient to support
   rotating cells capable of brief tornadoes.

   ..Leitman.. 09/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1149 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Nelson County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia...
  Northwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia...
  East central Augusta County in western Virginia...
  The eastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia...

* Until 1215 AM EDT.
    
* At 1148 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located over Afton, or near Waynesboro, moving
  northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, 
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. 
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is 
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Crimora around 1200 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Afton
Mountain and Greenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 7882 3802 7890 3825 7883 3819 7862
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 205DEG 25KT 3804 7884 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$
 

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Warning east of Charlottesville extended 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1156 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Albemarle County in central Virginia...

* Until 1230 AM EDT.
    
* At 1156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Charlottesville, moving northeast at 25
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, 
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. 
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is 
           likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  northeastern Albemarle County, including the following locations...
  Cobham, Cismont, Campbell, Boyd Tavern, Keswick, Stony Point and
  Shadwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 7843 3818 7836 3813 7821 3806 7826
      3796 7835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 218DEG 21KT 3803 7838 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

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These rain rates at times are incredible Afton and Waynesboro...don't know rain totals , first year since 1988 I do not keep a gauge... makes you think how awful the rain rates must have been in Nelson with Camille in 69 - with 30+ inches in a few hours...

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Tornado Watch possible for N VA/DC/MD -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1666.html

mcd1666.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1666
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021

   Areas affected...northern VA into MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 010419Z - 010545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of strong cells capable of producing brief
   tornadoes may spread northeast across parts of northern Virginia and
   western Maryland.

   DISCUSSION...A few persistent cells across central VA continue to
   show periods of low-level rotation as they track along the gradient
   of stronger 0-3 km MLCAPE. Forecast guidance shows this area of
   relatively greater instability persisting over parts of northern VA
   and MD. Low-level shear currently is weak downstream from WW 480
   across the MCD area. However, some improvement is forecast as
   stronger ascent spreads over the region and the stalled surface
   boundary lifts northward. This could support a few stronger cells
   with a continued tornado threat into the overnight hours, and a
   downstream tornado watch is possible.

   ..Leitman/Edwards.. 09/01/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1225 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  Central Orange County in central Virginia...
  Southwestern Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 100 AM EDT.

* At 1224 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Boswells Tavern, or 7 miles southwest of
  Orange, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Orange around 1240 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Nasons, Gordonsville, Madison Mills, Montford, Rapidan, Montpelier
Station, Madison Run, Unionville and Locust Dale.
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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

SW of there by Orange... Culpepper would be next if warning were issued.  But looks to slide just east of there

Looks to be tracking through some pretty dense population in the next hour.  Not good. 

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