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IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021


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Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

No one is getting less than 2 inches in our area.

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37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models haven’t been of much use with the placement of the heaviest rain this summer before nowcast time. But the heavy convection signals were very good. So it will be interesting to see if they get the location right this time or we get more shifts right through 12z tomorrow. The ingredients are there for somebody in the wider MA to NE region to get near a localized 10”+ max.

10" in the Poconos yuck

 

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38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains

I think heaviest in reality is a bit more se than Nam 12km shows. Just north and west of low path and front 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

GFS way north. East of NYC in areas get 1" or less.

I'm not sure I have seen many cases of mesos SE of the globals lol...again, the lingering tropical characteristics of the system probably causing havoc with the models somewhat...if the Euro ticks NW again I think we can toss to a degree the RGEM.  The NAM as I said has been struggling the last 3-4 runs creating double barreled centers and other nuances but it overall has had the axis closer to the GFS/Euro than the RGEM

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