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September 2021


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13 hours ago, gravitylover said:

We see how well that works during blizzards. I think the bottom line is NWS issues watches and warnings and people being people will then go on to make their decisions based on their needs at the moment. Even knowing better I've made some questionable decisions over the years when it comes to moving water over roadways when turning around wasn't a better option or the end goal was important.

And even with watches/warnings some people simply don’t get the message. Even as a weather enthusiast, the March 2010 Nor’easter caught me completely off guard, I’d known nothing about it at all, it was simply a normal day, until it wasn’t. We were in Garden State Plaza all day and stepped outside into what resembled a landfalling Hurricane, just minutes before the mall lost power.

Being on the GWB during all of this, as it was closing, is still my #1 wildest/scariest weather moment, the wind gusts were literally lifting up the front of our vehicle, and MOVING it, in the outer lane, in heavy traffic. Those gusts had to be well in excess of 100mph, I don’t know how they kept that bridge open for as long as they did.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. Moderate to heavy rain is likely across eastern Long Island into eastern New England. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 74°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.7°; 15-Year: 79.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.2°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.5°

A warming trend will develop during the weekend.

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Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

 

ACE38FD8-486A-4343-9527-ADA009566AB9.png.10af77387c3f06ba479b73aef71cd3d6.png
 

84E30E06-3E4F-4018-9ABC-0B808236521D.png.e6677c92ab57ba65eca07733cc357e7b.png

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69 degrees front moving through and so far .27 in the bucket in CNJ.  Front slow to clear today setting up and beautiful end of the week and this weekend.  Fri (9/10) / Sat (9/11) gorgeous sunny days low humidity and highs near 80.  Warmup starts  Sun (9/12) and continues through next week.  Ridge builds next chance at 90 in the warmer spots Mon (9/13) - Wed (9/15).  Beyond next week and into next weekend 9/17, overall warm looks to be sustained.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

another impressive ridge showing up toward day 10

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

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35 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

another impressive ridge showing up toward day 10

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_11.png

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png

They are finally getting a trough out West. It has been a dueling WAR and Western Ridge pattern all summer. So it looks like the WAR will be going solo for a change.

 

 

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late season warm spells are becoming more frequent in recent years...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

2019..9/21-9/23......3...89...had two days in October with a max of 93...

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53 minutes ago, uncle W said:

late season warm spells are becoming more frequent in recent years...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

2017..9/21-9/27......7...91

2019..9/21-9/23......3...89...had two days in October with a max of 93...

Say what? In October 2019 we had two days of 90+? I thought it was just 1?

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Sunday into Monday looks like our first chance to make a run on 90° this month. The SE ridge will be near record levels. Tough to sustain cooler departures like the first 5 days of September.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/09/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12| MON 13| TUE 14| WED 15| THU 16 CLIMO
 X/N  73| 61  79| 58  79| 63  87| 70  89| 68  82| 67  84| 69  83 59 76

 

ACE38FD8-486A-4343-9527-ADA009566AB9.png.10af77387c3f06ba479b73aef71cd3d6.png
 

84E30E06-3E4F-4018-9ABC-0B808236521D.png.e6677c92ab57ba65eca07733cc357e7b.png

But we didn't hit 90 last year after August either.  I remain highly skeptical of reaching 90 again where I live or for NYC for that matter.  EWR and even LGA may do it....I would put EWR at 90% and LGA at 50% while 30% for NYC and 20% for JFK.

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1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i made a prediction  before september that nyc will not hit 90 degrees again until next spring i am modifying it saying  i meant central park will not and i am sticking to it! i am a man of my word..

What has higher chances of happening, a 90 degree day at either NYC or JFK in September or Gallo hitting above .220 by the end of the season lol.

 

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah but Chris haven't you noticed that we dont get those endlessly long summer heatwaves anymore? I mean 7-10 days or longer.

Endless summer in September doesn’t mean every day for the rest of the month hits 90° at a place like Newark. Plenty of 80°+ days with the potential for several 90s mixed in. So an extended period when most of the days are above average. 
 

Newark daily average high and low

9-13…..79/62

9-20…..76/59

9-27…..73/56

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5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Say what? In October 2019 we had two days of 90+? I thought it was just 1?

 

What...I said it...these are three or more days with a max 80 or above for three days or longer starting around the first day of calendar fall...two of my favorite winters from my youth 1959-60 and 1968-69 had late heat...

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