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September 2021


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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

cost prohibitive in areas where they are mostly above ground now....

True Dat, but there is $3.5T coming for "infrastructure"...In the long run, it could be cheaper to bury a lot of utilities instead of making repairs after every tropical storm or tornado...Of course then again, it would probably be done wrong, not burying utilities in such a way that lines can be slipped in or out for future improvements.

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Temperatures rose into the middle and upper 70s with a few lower 80s today.

Out West, more record heat prevailed. Denver saw the temperature reach 97°, which easily surpassed the daily record of 93° from 2018. Today was the 3rd consecutive 95° or above temperature in Denver, the latest such stretch on record. The prior record was set during September 5-7, 2013. 10/14 (71%) of Denver's 97° or above September temperatures have occurred since 2010. Records go back to 1872.

Cheyenne had a high temperature of 91°. The previous daily record was 88°, which was set in 1954 and tied in 2016. September 9-11, 2021 is Cheyenne's latest-season heatwave on record. The prior latest heatwave occurred during September 6-8, 1959.

Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm with temperatures rising into the middle and upper 80s as far north as New York City. Thick wildfire smoke could again push into the region overnight.

Some of the guidance--the GFS in particular--is hinting at a potential tropical-enhanced rain event for late next week into next weekend. The GFS's run-to-run consistency suggests that the potential be watched closely.

Despite a cooler than normal first 7-10 days, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. The second half of the month could feature above to perhaps much above normal temperatures. As a result, 2021 is increasingly likely to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +4.04 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.834 today.

On September 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.279 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.7° (1.5° above normal).

 

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The last 5 runs of the GFS have had anywhere from a total of 1.5" and up to 6" over the next 16 days.         Most of it falls of course during the Sat.-Mon period next weekend.         Even includes some retrograde motion as pointed out by others here.

1631383200-R2wkd9d9mQ0.png

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, the tropical rainforests are more significant, but a precedent based on expediency would only give further cover for Brazil to continue to develop the Amazon rainforest area.

Better building codes, reduced development in highest risk areas (current and modeled) and sustained decarbonization are needed. 

 

Something I read which was troubling on the political side was an article about how more trees are better in a "perfect" world but in our carbon polluted world that we should be looking into replacing forests with grassland.  I think JBurns posted this though I can't locate the link right now I'm going by memory.  The argument presented was that because of the fire risk of trees that areas in which forest fires are prevalent we should replace trees with grassland, and the grass would act as a carbon sink too and grass fires (brush fires) are less destructive than forest fires.  It made me think about the issue a bit more, but this goes beyond trees, there are many fauna that would die out if the trees were gone,  Many animals and specifically birds are dependent on them.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Must be like a tropical rainforest canopy covering the NYC ASOS.;)

Highs today…

JFK….76°

NYC…76°

ISP…..76°

LGA….79°

EWR…81°

But there was no humidity today it was amazing.  Why cant we have this kind of weather all year round?  This is why I want to get rid of the Gulf of Mexico lol

 

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Something I read which was troubling on the political side was an article about how more trees are better in a "perfect" world but in our carbon polluted world that we should be looking into replacing forests with grassland.  I think JBurns posted this though I can't locate the link right now I'm going by memory.  The argument presented was that because of the fire risk of trees that areas in which forest fires are prevalent we should replace trees with grassland, and the grass would act as a carbon sink too and grass fires (brush fires) are less destructive than forest fires.  It made me think about the issue a bit more, but this goes beyond trees, there are many fauna that would die out if the trees were gone,  Many animals and specifically birds are dependent on them.

 

You are correct. I have grave reservations about concepts that would overturn entire ecosystems. I can’t think of a legitimate, much less ethical basis for doing so.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

You are correct. I have grave reservations about concepts that would overturn entire ecosystems. I can’t think of a legitimate, much less ethical basis for doing so.

You and I both know how people in power think, short term gains even if it means long term losses.  I can see this happening.  It's already happening in some parts of the country (deforestation in the South is ongoing.)  It is just going to accelerate climate change and something else they didn't think about, when the big flooding rains do happen, these treeless areas will cause massive mudslides and landslides.  We often see these in the west when flooding rains occur after forest fires remove the trees.  Humans cutting them down will only exacerbate that.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(70/85), or +8.

Month to date is  70.7[-1.8].        Could be  73.3[+2.4] by the 20th.

Reached 80 here yesterday at 5pm, for an hour.

South wind today, so 78 by me and some clouds.      Higher T for City.

67*(65%RH) here at 6am, m. clear, hazy---western forest fire smoke.          69* by 9am.       70* at 10am.        74* by Noon.        80* by 3pm.      81* at 4:30pm.

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