September 2021

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

My cousin is getting married Friday in Spring Lake.  Fortunately it's an indoor wedding but I still feel bad seeing that it could be a lousy day weather-wise.  Any chance this potential rainfall shuts off by Thursday night or early Friday morning?

Spring Lake is beautiful 

Enjoy 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 

[rmo09001]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge east of New England on the UKMET and Euro is just slightly stronger than the CMC. So the UKMET and Euro linger the convection into Saturday. Probably need a few more model cycles to pin down the exact timing of the front.

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, rmo09001 said:

Gotcha, appreciate the additional context. Getting married on Friday near Hudson, NY. Rooting VERY hard for a quicker solution to be realized.

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

Saturday should be OK. Maybe a lingering shower in the morning?? The main activity will be later Thursday into Friday as you noted. I think a 1-3" rainfall w/embedded thunderstorms is still on the table.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Congratulations. The 12z UKMET joined the CMC. Heaviest convection later Thursday into early Friday. The front keeps moving enough that both models are now dry for Saturday.

Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yea they were way too slow moving even with the strong WAR.

The 592 dm height at Caribou today was one of the highest on record for so late in the season.

 

[matt8204]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Spring Lake is beautiful 

Enjoy 

Thanks!  Looking forward to it.  Might stay down there for the weekend if it clears up.  

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Ridge over troubled waters pattern possibly. 

I like the extended dry spell, let's get that here first.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is the kind of situation that is possible under some of the fairly ominous monthly 500 mb forecasts for October (and weekly forecasts going into October).

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But let's remember that the chances for anything to happen here are extremely small.  What usually happens is a storm into the SE or Gulf or even more likely out to sea, which is what's been happening this month.

 

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While true, the odds would be greater than climatology. Even indirect effects could produce flooding. Of course, what will likely become Sam could recurve if the pattern is still evolving. But there’s always the possibility of additional storms, as it has been a very active season.

That trajectory looked to me like a southern track.  Do you think that splitting the two predominant tracks (SE/Gulf and out to sea/Bermuda), which would be Hatteras to New England may be more likely than, say, when we had Henri come up here in August?  If so it looks like a first week of October window doesn't it, Don?

 

[bluewave]

Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
	2021	108	102

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another 80° day at Newark as the endless summer pattern continues.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80	Missing Count
1	2015	118	0
2	1994	114	0
3	2016	113	0
-	1993	113	0
-	1991	113	0
4	2011	111	0
-	2010	111	0
5	1959	108	0
	2021	108	102

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

[nycwinter]

newark temps are inaccurate  been that way all summer..

[bluewave]

39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Outside chance of getting 10 more days before cold weather finally comes in?

 

The potential for a few more 80° degree days showing up over the next week.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/21/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28|WED CLIMO
 N/X  67  81| 69  76| 61  75| 59  74| 59  81| 59  77| 59  75| 61 54 72

[wxallannj]

Also at EWR we have a good chance of having the highest minimum temperature for the month of September

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	57	10
2	2015	54	0
3	2018	53	0
-	2002	53	0
-	1994	53	0
6	2016	51	0
-	2011	51	0
-	2010	51	0
-	2008	51	0
-	1968	51	0

 

[bluewave]

Islip made it to 78° today. So this was the 21st day in September to reach 75° or warmer. It’s only 4 days behind the September all-time record.
 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75	Missing Count
1	2005	25	0
2	2015	24	0
-	1980	24	0
3	2019	23	0
-	1998	23	0
4	2017	22	0
-	2007	22	0
5	2020	21	0
-	1968	21	0
	2021	21	9

[doncat]

ASTRO summer here came in at 13th warmest past 44 years...Rain of 30.27" beats out 2011 to become wettest.

[donsutherland1]

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures rose into the middle and upper 70s. A few locations reached 80°. Newark reached 80° for the 108th time this year, which ties 1959 for the 8th most such days. The record is 118 days, which was set in 2015.

Tomorrow will turn mostly cloudy. It will be unseasonably warm. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall from tomorrow night through Friday. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible.

The MJO has recently been locked in Phase 3 at a high amplitude, frequently in excess of 1.500. Only 2006 and 2009 saw the MJO in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 2 or more days during September 10-20. Both years saw September end with a cold shot that continued into the first days of October. Both days saw Central Park's temperature fall to 49° on September 30. A fairly sharp rebound in temperatures followed. October wound up wetter than normal with 7.07" rainfall in 2006 and 5.58" of rainfall in 2009. Normal rainfall (1991-2020) is 4.38".

Despite the guidance of a few days ago and a likely cold shot to end the month, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27".

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around September 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop.

The SOI was +13.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.046 today.

On September 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.344 (RMM). The September 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.466 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

I don't want to brag, but I am getting a little shower right now  9:15PM

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The potential for a few more 80° degree days showing up over the next week.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   9/21/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 22| THU 23| FRI 24| SAT 25| SUN 26| MON 27| TUE 28|WED CLIMO
 N/X  67  81| 69  76| 61  75| 59  74| 59  81| 59  77| 59  75| 61 54 72

It's interesting what our summers are turning into, consistently warm to very warm, but very little in the way of extreme heat and particularly extreme heat that lasts a long time.  All of our long 7+ day heatwaves are from over a decade ago.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Islip made it to 78° today. So this was the 21st day in September to reach 75° or warmer. It’s only 4 days behind the September all-time record.
 

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 75	Missing Count
1	2005	25	0
2	2015	24	0
-	1980	24	0
3	2019	23	0
-	1998	23	0
4	2017	22	0
-	2007	22	0
5	2020	21	0
-	1968	21	0
	2021	21	9

1983 isn't on this list?  That had 5x 90+ days in September at JFK

 

[MJO812]

Might be time to track Sam

[psv88]

Helluva way to run a cooldown

[Rtd208]

...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic...
   Although there remains substantive spread within/among the various
   model output, 30-50+ kt southerly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may
   linger into the day Thursday across much of the northern Mid
   Atlantic region, generally coincident with the corridor of
   seasonably moist boundary-layer air.  Although lower/mid
   tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, weak to
   moderate CAPE may still develop and contribute to scattered
   thunderstorm activity with daytime heating.  In the presence of
   moderate to strong shear in the lower to mid-levels, the environment
   may become conducive to organizing lines or clusters with the
   potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts.  Latest guidance
   appears increasingly suggestive that hodographs could become
   characterized by substantial clockwise-curvature in low levels,
   particularly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
   into south central and southeastern New York state, which may
   support a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 82°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.9°; 15-Year: 75.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 75.5°; 15-Year: 76.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.7°; 15-Year: 77.7°

A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible tonight through Friday. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely.

[Rjay]

12 hours ago, nycwinter said:

newark temps are inaccurate  been that way all summer..

How so?

[gmendevils8204]

9 hours ago, CIK62 said:

I don't want to brag, but I am getting a little shower right now  9:15PM

Must have been the same piece of moisture I got. Went out to my car around 10:30 and the ground was unexpectedly wet.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(66/79), or +6.

Month to date is  71.8[+0.9].         Could be 71.9[+2.2] by the 30th.

Reached 79* here yesterday.

72*(97%RH) here at 6am, overcast, scuzzy.        75* at Noon.     76* at 1pm.       78* at 3pm.        Reached 79* at 5pm.

Today 76-80,se. wind, m. cloudy.