Henri: Moderate-Major impacts NYC subforum this weekend, possibly into Monday August 21-23, 2021

[uncle W]

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning BW. We can only hope that The ASOS Program Manager, Mr Ken Boutin comes through for us. As always …..

18 years and counting...don't hold your breath...

[jm1220]

It definitely is starting the bend NW now on radar. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, sferic said:

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

We'll be fine here. High tide came and went, and it's really about a 15-20 mph breeze where I am 6 blocks from the beach, seriously. Have to watch where the rain sets up with the NW bend, where it sits will have street/basement flooding. 

[lee59]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
954 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 2021

...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS...

LOCATION                     SPEED     TIME/DATE       PROVIDER             

...CONNECTICUT...

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
USCG ACADEMY                 49 MPH    0833 AM 08/22   WXFLOW 
GROTON AIRPORT               39 MPH    0837 AM 08/22   ASOS                 

...NEW YORK...

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
BAITING HOLLOW               50 MPH    0850 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
NAPEAGUE                     48 MPH    0849 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
SHINNECOCK                   42 MPH    0859 AM 08/22   WXFLOW
GREAT GULL ISLAND            46 MPH    0841 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
ORIENT POINT                 38 MPH    0805 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
MECOX BAY                    38 MPH    0811 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               
SOUTHOLD                     37 MPH    0817 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT          37 MPH    0836 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
STONY BROOK                  37 MPH    0838 AM 08/22   CWOP                 
MONTAUK AIRPORT              36 MPH    0800 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
SHIRLEY AIRPORT              36 MPH    0849 AM 08/22   ASOS                 
SOUTHOLD                     36 MPH    0905 AM 08/22   NYSM                 
EAST HAMPTON                 35 MPH    0855 AM 08/22   AWOS                 
ORIENT                       35 MPH    0901 AM 08/22   CWOP                 

...MARITIME STATIONS...

...CONNECTICUT...              
STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 48 MPH    0850 AM 08/22   WXFLOW               

...NEW YORK...
19 SSE EAST HAMPTON          49 MPH    0810 AM 08/22   NDBC                                               
&&

**METADATA**
:8/22/2021,0837 AM, CT, NEW

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

I am beginning to feel more confident that here in SW Nass Cnty (LYNBROOK) I might not have to switch on my backup generator since the wind threat seems it will be much less than first thought. 

 

As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues.  If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down.  It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances.  I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen.  My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch.   think south of there might stay more rainy and stable

[rclab]

Just now, uncle W said:

18 years and counting...don't hold your breath...

Even if I wanted to I might have difficulty. He did say, in his correspondence to me, to have patience. So what’s another 18 years. I will leave it to my very young budding Meteorologist grandson to carry the torch. I would…. but I couldn’t trust myself if I walked the perimeter of the CPK Station with it. As always .

[wdrag]

BID... pressure bottoming out and wind turning more easterly. Also s part of BID winds have decreased below 20 kt. 

[bluewave]

Due to the tropical nature of the rainfall, the E-W band along the South Shore is being underestimated a bit by the radar. Getting a heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk that is more impressive than radar indicates. 

 

[psv88]

Few wind gusts close to 20 now...rain hitting the windows, finally feels like some semblence of a storm. I would guess we gust to 30-35 in the dryslot later on

[uncle W]

I put out my rain guage for this...its older than my son and he's 31...its hard to tell because the plastic turned yellow over the years...Maybe 3" so far here...

[allgame830]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

As long as it keeps raining and stays largely overcast I see no issues.  If however the rain breaks up or slides south it could be dangerous as it might allow enough destabilizing in the lower layers to start mixing those 925 winds down.  It would not necessarily be that strong but certainly 240-260 25G35-40 would be possible and with soaked ground you'd start losing trees left and right probably under those circumstances.  I think W LI/5 boroughs are the areas to watch 2-6pm to see if that might happen.  My hunch now is the N shore of LI/Queens/Bronx is the spot to watch.   think south of there might stay more rainy and stable

Thanks for the update! How do you feel for places slightly further north... like southern part of the LHV. thanks in advance @SnowGoose69

[ForestHillWx]

23 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Millstone River in Mercer County West Windsor Twp Southfield Road - we parked here on dry ground and in 45 minutes had to move - continues to rise.  

Stay safe. That river has tendency to flash. I think Bound Brook may have problems tomorrow; the Raritan watershed is filling up. 

[Cfa]

0.99” so far. Nothing heavy. Boring.

[nycsnow]

Is it moving west? Lol

[tek1972]

This area of clearing somes to be moving west northwest
Is it possible Montauk sees some blue skies late today?

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

[wdrag]

46 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Thanks Walt 

us inland folks could have some serious flooding issues here later.

Stretching FGEN rain now evident wow from LI through I78-I80 region into ne PA.  When this system stalls for 6-12 hours, efficient 1.8" PW should yield quite a bit.  Not checking amounts too much til 5P.  I'm not studying this enough to pinpoint but the radar tells the story as moisture - rain rolls west from CT/LI into the qstry stretch zone of NNJ.

[Prue11]

A few gusts to about 25 here. Heavy rain earlier a light rain now. We got lucky 

[Big Jims Videos]

4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Stay safe. That river has tendency to flash. I think Bound Brook may have problems tomorrow; the Raritan watershed is filling up. 

NWS MT HOLLY tweeted me said millstone expected to crest at 2 pm.  That's a lot of time yet to rise unfortunately.  

[Rtd208]

On the southern edge of the heaviest rain over NNJ. Currently getting light to moderate rain. 

[Cfa]

I want to scream.

[donsutherland1]

With 0.39” rainfall through 11 am, Summer 2021 has become only the 10th on record to record 20” or more of rain in New York City.

[winterwx21]

Obviously there were huge rain totals down in central and southern Middlesex County, but much lower amounts up here in extreme northern Middlesex County. I picked up 1.30" so far here.

[wdrag]

IMO, Henri passed WEST of BID, by not too far, maybe a couple miles?  Max wind at BID was about 48KTS (~55 MPH),   but I saw 68 MPH  (59kts) on the BID wx underground sensor.

 

 

[bluewave]

Rain continuing to get heavier here in SW Suffolk as this stalled out band really means business.

[SnoSki14]

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

[psv88]

Wind gust to about 30 now, starting to pick up a bit

[wdrag]

Last comments til possibly tomorrow morning,  Henri passage e of MTK made it easier to either the storm.  Winds may be a little less than advertised near the center but it isn't done quite yet (backside southwester this afternoon?) . Power outage map reflects recent upticks RI/CT, but good that our subforum doesn't have to deal.  There will always be critics.  They don't get paid to protect. It seems that the GFS/HWRF etc were best on tracking Henri, but horrendous on qpf. 

Rainfall next 18-30 hours hopefully works out less.  Seems to be a slight northward shift in modeled max axis...but still focuses in se NYS NJ/PA border.

[lee59]

New London airport in SE Ct. reporting sustained 31mph and gust to 46mph. Henri appears to be moving toward Ct. 

[jm1220]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Rain continuing to get heavier here in SW Suffolk as this stalled out band really means business.

Yep it’s pouring here in Long Beach. Not as hard as last night but enough to I’m sure flood some basements. I checked out the waves-maybe 5-6 footers but 2 days before Sandy they seemed twice as high. 

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm in the screw zone. Some 6-8" maybe 15-20 miles to my south and now the heavy stuff is about 15-20 miles north or so.

About 1.5" for me