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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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2 minutes ago, radarman said:

I'll also sell a foot of rain.  I'd have to see to believe that around these parts for sure.  If it should happen I'll give props to folks.

Dude.. different scenario I know. But we had 5.5” today in 3 hours. And 22” since July 1. If Hank stalls. All bets off. All kinds of crazy stuff is possible . At this point.. all fun conjecture 

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16 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

So any notable historic storms that slowed or stalled like some of these model runs?

Not that I’m aware of. Pretty much no historical analogs for this one. Nothing even remotely close to Bermuda has made landfall in New England before.

Credit Bob Henson/Jeff Masters for the image over at YCC.

 

 

B2434368-097B-41D4-A9F3-1214C489EFE0.jpeg

Track of all tropical cyclones on record, going back to 1851, that passed within 120 nautical miles of Hartford, Connecticut, while still classified as hurricanes. (Image credit: NOAA Historical Hurricane Tracks)

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5 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Am I in looney land? A slow moving tropical storm or hurricane dumps a shit ton of moisture.

You can be right and radarman is right too.  12+ is a lot of water for New England.  Depends on the area though too…  Even widespread 4-8” is like full on Armageddon here in VT down to the Berks from the terrain (re Irene).

I could see the Cape taking 8-12” with some parking lot flooding.

I still think 12+ rainfall is a tough nut to crack but I’m more aligned with deep interior climo.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

You can be right and radarman is right too.  12+ is a lot of water for New England.  Depends on the area though too…  Even widespread 4-8” is like full on 100 year Armageddon here in VT down to the Berks from the terrain.

I could see the Cape taking 8-12” with some parking lot flooding.

I still think 12+ rainfall is a tough nut to crack but I’m more aligned with deep interior climo.

I mean I'm not using 12" as some kind of bench mark here. I just have the over on 6". Double digits in places would be more or less my guess in a stall. 

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Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I mean I'm not using 12" as some kind of bench mark here. I just have the over on 6". Double digits in places would be more or less my guess in a stall. 

Yeah 6+ is a shit ton of water.

Then again a gypsy moth farts and NE CT gets 3-5” water this summer so who knows.

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With all the rain that’s fallen here this summer I imagine we wouldn’t  need an absurd rain total to cause big problems. Those rain totals in Harvey while astounding at least fell in a region where it’s not completely unprecedented. I would imagine here in the cool northeast our ecosystem wouldn’t be able to handle an equivalent total but maybe someone with more knowledge than myself could expand on that.

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27 minutes ago, Newman said:

Remember that Irene dropped 3-7" of rain across much of New England and caused tremendous problems in many places, you don't need Harvey levels of rain to destroy things.

Irene also dropped 10-12" in max zones moving fairly briskly

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From the time the center pulled itself back from the brink of decoupling earlier today, both visible and IR have improved gradually in presentation, even as shear continues this evening. 

Hard to tell what's happening inside without recon, but new microwave images are coming in a few hours. 

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giphy.gif?cid=790b76111b3850b7e844332699

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

From the time the center pulled itself back from the brink of decoupling earlier today, both visible and IR have improved gradually in presentation, even as shear continues this evening. 

Hard to tell what's happening inside without recon, but new microwave images are coming in a few hours. 

 

 

Def improvement since midday! Shear prob has maxed and slowly declining. CDO looks more symmetrical, outflow improving although still getting squashed on the N/NE sides. 

Any idea when the next recon flight is scheduled? 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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