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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021


WxWatcher007
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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Uganda...I went 3 years ago...Feb 2018. I did get to go on a safari and prob will again. This is more vacation...the first time, I had to gain her parent's permission to marry her and went through a whole itinerary of ceremonies/procedures.

Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that

jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run  lol

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5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man..you're lucky to embrace and get to experience that

jeaous bro - ...although I'm sure you'll be recording the Red Sox playoff run  lol

Yea, you nailed the one aspect that I am remiss about....love baseball postseason. I may catch some of WS and will be back for snow.

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6 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We watch! 

AL18_2021092300_ECENS.png

If one is a morally responsible mentality storm enthusiast ( heh ...) you should prefer the southern envelope of those solutions in this graphic above.

Those are through the "key slot" climo. The ones along and polar side of that thick, black mean track, as history has shown, those tracks slope off pretty quickly, as not going on to denuding life and structure off of LI and sending roofing material, pine bows and power lines to Montreal...

 

 

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The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC.

The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR).    More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance.

Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting.   But it sure is interesting to look at!

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36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The 00z Euro ( operational ...) is almost 90th percentile ( eye-balling method ..) for concern along the EC.

The confluence passing into the Maritimes, evidenced in the 500 mb synoptic evolution, is all indirectly tied to a -d(NAO), which in theory ...blocks TCs from passing seaward once they've succeeded the 'key slot' climo (60 naut mi N of PR).    More over, the situation of a closed 500 mb trough over WV... mm, just needs another contour ( but may be enough ); but as is, the differential in heights between it, and NE of Bermuda, guides the track extrapolation of that hurricane pretty comfortably to a position somewhere between ROA, VA and the 70th longitude line by imagining, a-priori, a day 11 .. 13 circumstance.

Unfortunately ... ( or fortunately, depending upon one's personal approach to this stuff ) that day 11 (bold) makes much of this less than entirely useful to any deterministic forecasting.   But it sure is interesting to look at!

Place your bets on who will be the first to disregard all stated caveats above, and lead with "Cat 5 landfall imminent in the S.E. U.S.".

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The Sci Fi author in me would incline to imagine that 'near miss' capture there is an artifact of the GFS having too much beta-motion in the mid range - such that by the time it interacts with the cutting/cutoff low it's already gained to much latitude, and is able to partially escape.

;)  good sci fi errs on the side of plausibility -

It's all way out there so, perhaps the best sci fi authors at this time are in fact the AI/ behind the modeling...  heh.

The Euro did not have as much polarward drag on its track, notable ... if still la la range.   I just... I don't like very good set ups on D8 anything.  It meas the only options are less ideal. 

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10 minutes ago, hurricaneman said:

The thing I’m seeing is that the GFS is slowly trending towards the Euro

Noted ...

hinted above, I do wonder if the NAVGEM/GGEM/GFS are all to polar biased in the 48 to 96 hour range. Anything after that ~ range becomes academically unavailable to interest farther west ( most likely...)

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Very close

actually it isn't -

there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to sea.    next -

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually it isn't -

there's no way that gets any closer than that... so I guess in the greater geometric comparison to the whole basin it's close in that sense but that is safely and non storied out to see.    next -

10 days out

Next run will show a big hit

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I don’t really care about the D10 low location. What matters to me are the players on the field. So while the actual run isn’t particularly close verbatim, all I really need to see is the SE Canada ridging and possible cutoff. It’s there for now. Let’s see what’s what when it gets to the Antilles. 

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